Severe droughts in East Africa, devastating hurricanes such as Irma, Harvey and Maria in Caribbean and gigantic monsoon floods in South Asia – in time for UN climate conference in Bonn, you have shown one thing: Klimawandelist real, and it always meets people worldwide Harder. The rich industrial countries seem to suffer even less from ir consequences at moment. But what if statements like those of federal Foreign Minister Gabriel Apply, a exit of US from Paris climate agreement could still größereMigrationsströme to Europe?

Gabriel is not only one who fears climate refugees. The founder of alternative Nobel Prize, Jakob von Uexküll, also recently raised question of WieEuropa with 200 million climate refugees if re were already a million war refugees not handle.

But equation " more climate change, more migration" does not go up. Because migration decisions are very complex. They are influenced not only by consequences of climate change, for example by harvest failures infolgeveränderter precipitation patterns, but also by many or factors of political, economic or cultural nature.

Climate change is particularly strong for poor population groups, who can only protect mselves very limited: small farmers, fishermen or urban arms. They live under harsh conditions anyway. If you decide to leave your homeland, n Sichempirisch barely lets you know wher environmental factors or or causes were diemaßgeblichen motives.

Steffen Bauer and Benjamin Schraven

Are researchers at German Institute for Development Policy in Bonn.

In addition, poor in global South Fehlenvielfach simply resources to be able to migrate at all. Their immobility is dramatic in face of climate change – and IhreRessourcenbasis is furr undermined by climate change. These population groups, which are invisible to unsweitgehend and which are referred to as "trapped populations" in specialist literature, suffer not only from rising danger of floods or cyclones – around three-quarters of derTodesopfer of extreme wear events live in poor Developing countries – but also under creeping environmental changes, such as water scarcity and vegetation losses, which are already threatening ir meager livelihoods.

Climate change aggravates conflict

where people affected by environmental change Tatsächlichmigrieren, this is often done in circular or seasonal migration. Which that individual family members – often limited in time – make ir way to earn money elsewhere. They try to compensate for crop or livestock losses of family or clan. In doing so, y move in most cases within limits of ir own Herkunftslandesoder between neighbouring countries in a region. It is very unlikely that a Kenyan Viehhirte plagued by drought will make its way to Europe.

Moreover, politically significant definitional Abgrenzungzwischen flight and migration is difficult in se contexts. Migration researchers are talking about "mixed hikes" in which sichwirtschaftliche migration motifs, with causes of escape, such as weak Staatlichkeitoder, also mix natural disasters. The role of climate change alsVerursacher of armed conflict is often postulated, for example in case of Syrian war, which actually preceded a perennial drought. Empirically, this is hardly to be evidenced, since violent conflicts have mostly vieleUrsachen. However, it is obvious that climate impacts provide additional stress, which can furr complicate LatenteKonflikte.

The Delegates DerUN-climate conferences are similarly difficult to negotiate in addition to key issues such as emission reduction, adaptation financing or technology transfer, but also about escape undMigration. Since May, links between climate change and expulsion have been discussed by a task force set up under umbrella of DerUN Framework Convention. In course of derPräsidentschaft of Fiji Islands, which are mselves heavily affected by climate change, this task force could pay special attention to Bonn climate conference.

The goal is neir debate, wher or not re is a change of thinking Lima, nor discussion of wher and how DerKlimawandel leads to new migration processes. Both distract from actual problem. The crucial question is: how can human Sicherheitgewährleistet and protection be protected?

It should also be starting point of "Global Compact on Refugees", which will be presented to 2018 VomUN High Commissioner for refugee. It would aim to improve protection and supply of refugees procedurewithout and to focus more on marginalized arms. Recognizing climate change as a stress factor that is still worsening fragile living conditions of poor is only first step.

Date Of Update: 09 November 2017, 12:03