Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reaches new multi-day high of $1,900 amid increased risk-aversion

The resistance to gold bulls is critical. All eyes are on Fed speakers and Russian diplomacy.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD reaches new multi-day high of $1,900 amid increased risk-aversion
  • For the opening sessions, a break of $1890 could be in the cards.

Update -Gold (XAU/USD), takes the bids for June 2021 highs. This is up 0.60% during Monday's Asian session, around $1,910, and a little over $1,910 intraday.

The yellow metal's uptrend of three weeks to refresh the eight-month high is extended by the yellow metal. This was due to traders' rush to be safe amid growing concerns about Russia-Ukraine.

A witness to Reuters recently reported that an explosion was heard at the centre of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine's rebel-held capital. Despite this, the US is still suggesting an imminent Russian military strike on Ukraine. Moscow denies these claims. Notable is the fact that the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Sergei Lavrov, Russia's Foreign Minister. This meeting will be a beacon of hope and help to de-escalate geopolitical fears.

S&P 500 Futures fall 0.50% per day, while the US Dollar Index and Treasury yields continue to be pressured.

However, it is worth noting that gold buyers are also optimistic ahead of this week’s key inflation numbers due to the recent downbeat US inflation expectations. This was measured using the 10-year breakeven rate per the St. Louis Federal Reserve data.

End of the update.

The price of gold, XAU/USD was little changed Friday, but trend followers remain engaged with traders looking for safe-haven assets. Europe's stock markets fell while Wall Street saw a drop in stocks. However, safe-haven debt prices rose as a result of increased shelling in Ukraine's east and a more unsettling stance by Russia.

XAU/USD traded between $1,886.66 to $1,902.54 Friday, closing flat. However, more US warnings that a Russian invasion was imminent continue to pressure risk sentiment Friday night. Analysts at ANZ Bank stated that developments could be a key driver for markets this week. "The US has warned of multiple cities being attacked, causing large civilian casualties. Russia, however, continues to deny any plans.

The Federal Reserve watches prices with a heavy hand, like a knife tied to a string. Analysts at TD Securities argued that if the Fed is too hawkish, it will eventually sap the market's appetite for precious metals. Despite a sustained buying behavior, gold prices will likely fall, especially as real rates rise sharply in tandem with double tightening via hikes or quantitative tightening. CTAs will continue to accumulate at the top if gold prices succumb to this macro-regime as we expect.

There is much happening in the economic calendar for the week ahead. There will be a chorus of Fed speakers, the PCE report and Markit PMIs. Analysts at TD Securities stated that Fed officials would remain occupied this week in order to guide the market before the March FOMC meeting. They will also be following signs of persistent data strength, particularly on inflation. Governor Waller will be the focus of attention, as he will discuss the US economic outlook at TD Securities on February 24th. The Presidents Bostic and Barkin are also scheduled to give remarks.

Technical analysis for gold
The bulls have pushed the bears to a weekly support and the daily chart's
Fibonacci scale ratios is compelling at the moment.
A 4-hour chart shows that there is a possibility of a break to the downside, given the slowing down of the correction. For the opening sessions, a break of $1890 could be possible to get to the 38.2% Fibo at $1,880.




 

NEXT NEWS