The AUD/USD continues to struggle at 0.7500 after the NFP on the firm US dollar

As the market mood turns sour, the AUD/USD fell to a halt during the North American session. US equity are losing money, but US Treasury yields at the short end of the curve are rising faster than long-dated maturities.

The AUD/USD continues to struggle at 0.7500 after the NFP on the firm US dollar

This suggests that the US economy may slow down in its aggressive Fed hikes. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7490 as of the writing.

The USD is boosted by mixed US economic data and a positive mood.

Investors were affected by factors such as the Russo–Ukraine conflict and higher global prices. The US Department of Labour released the March Nonfarm Labour Payrolls report earlier in the day. It showed that 431K jobs were added to the economy, which was lower than the 490K predicted by economists. The market viewed it as a solid report, even though it was slightly lower than expected. Forecasts ranged from 0 to 700K so it was not surprising that the market found it disappointing. The Unemployment rate fell from 3.8% YoY to March, beating the 3.7% forecast.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI , an indicator of the industry's strength, dropped to 57.1 in March, from 58.6 February. This is well below the 59 estimates by analysts.

The US Dollar Index is currently at 98.666, a measure of the greenback’s value relative to its peers. It is increasing 0.32% due to high US Treasury yields. The benchmark US 10-year note rose three basis points to 2.360%. However, it is lower than 2s which are at 2.428%. This inverts the curve for the second week in a row.

AUD/USD Forecast: Technical outlook

The AUD/USD market action has drifted around the 0.7500 mark for the past seven days but has not been able to sustain it. Notably, candlesticks printed on average a larger wick than the actual bodies. This suggests that strong resistance could be able to stop the market from moving further. The pair was also vulnerable to downward pressure due to the failure to reclaim October 28th, 2021, the daily high of 0.7555.

The AUD/USD daily high of 0.7478 on September 3, 2021 would be the first support level. A sustained break would expose the March 7th daily high of 0.7441, followed closely by 0.7400 and November 15th 2021 daily highs at 0.7370.