The French preferred to save their earnings in purchasing power

The Bank of France has slightly revised down its macroeconomic forecasts for the country. It now expects growth of 1.3 % this year, 1.4% in 2020 and to 1.4% in

The French preferred to save their earnings in purchasing power

The Bank of France has slightly revised down its macroeconomic forecasts for the country. It now expects growth of 1.3 % this year, 1.4% in 2020 and to 1.4% in 2021. A trajectory very close to that of the government (1.4 percent, on each of the three years). The little bit of pessimism from the central bank is explained by two trends: the hardening of commercial disputes international and the prudence of the French. "The gains in purchasing power are consumed more slowly than what was expected", has advanced Olivier Garnier, managing director in charge of Studies and international Relations of the institution. In the last quarter of 2018, the revenues available to the French have risen to 8.5 billion euros, but the consumption of only 3.1 billion.

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Nearly two-thirds of the additional purchasing power provided by the tax measures to the end of the year have therefore been spared. According to the economist, this shift in consumption will support in contrast, the activity in 2020 and 2021 - domestic demand remaining the main engine of growth for the hexagonal.

unemployment Rate to 8.1% in 2021

In this context of resistance to the growth, the unemployment rate would continue to decline year after year. The Bank of France table between 2019 and 2021 on a decline in unemployment of 0.3 percentage point every year. In 2021, it would therefore be 8.1 %. If the recession continues at the same pace, unemployment would fall below 8 % for point 7, 8 % in 2022, a level that, without the reach, closer then the promise presidential unemployment to 7 % in 2022.

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The horizon is, however, less pink on the front of the debt would stabilize at around 99 %. "In the current state, we do not expect any reversal of the cap of the public debt," said Olivier Garnier, when the government is relying on a debt ratio of 98.1 % in 2021. "It stands out in this regard quite negatively to our european partners that significantly reduce their debt", he insisted.

Updated Date: 12 June 2019, 00:00

Kathleen Lees

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