If there were zero entry and exit flows of immigrants from 2023, the activity rate would fall 4.4 percentage points until 2030
MADRID, 31 Ago. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The aging process in Spain could cause a drop in the activity rate of an additional 2.8 percentage points until 2030 compared to its current level, until it reaches 55% compared to its current value, according to an article by the Bank of Spain.
The study also reveals that the population aging experienced during the last decade would have had a negative impact of some 3.4 percentage points on the level of the activity rate in 2022 in Spain, going from 62.1% to 58.7 %.
In addition, this effect would have been heterogeneous by region, with greater intensity in the Cantabrian autonomous communities and less pronounced in the Balearic Islands, Castilla-La Mancha and Extremadura.
Among the reasons, the labor participation of the younger age groups, those between 16 and 24 years of age, and people over 55 years of age, explains this fall in the activity rate.
Thus, as the largest population cohorts --those belonging to the 'baby boom'-- reach ages close to retirement, the aggregate activity rate falls due to a mere composition effect.
In addition, with a view to the coming years, a continued increase in the dependency ratio is expected --defined as the population aged 65 or over over the group between 15 and 64 years--, until reaching 35 in 2030, 1%, almost 5 points more than in 2022.
The foreign group would have offset, in part, the impact of aging on activity in Spain, given that this population group is, on average, younger and has higher labor participation rates, according to the institution.
Specifically, the evolution of the labor force participation of the foreign population would have contributed to mitigating the impact of aging on the aggregate activity rate by around 0.8 percentage points since 2012.
The results published by the Bank of Spain show that, taking into account both the foreign and national population, the greatest contractive effect of aging on labor participation would have occurred in Asturias, Cantabria and the Basque Country, with effects in the environment of the 5 percentage points, given the greater weight of the population over 65 years of age in these regions.
On the other hand, among the autonomous communities with the lowest falls, Islas Baleares, Castilla la Mancha and Extremadura stand out, which have registered a lower increase in the weight of the older population.
If only the national population in each autonomous community is considered, immigration would have made it possible to cushion the impact of aging observed in the last decade on the activity rate in all the autonomous communities, except Andalusia.
This cushioning effect of immigration would have manifested itself most notably in Madrid, Catalonia and the Balearic Islands, territories that have registered the largest inflows of immigrants in proportion to their population in the last decade.
Looking ahead to the coming years, with the continuous aging of the Spanish population, a strong replacement of those born in Spain by foreigners is expected, which will occur in the age brackets between 25 and 54 years or the bracket known as 'prime age'. ', which is characterized by being the one with the highest relative labor participation.
Likewise, from the Bank of Spain they warn that if there were zero entry and exit flows of immigrants from 2023, the activity rate would fall 4.4 percentage points until 2030, so the positive effect of the projected migratory flows by the INE could be quantified at 1.6 percentage points.
