MADRID, 1 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The General Council of Economists (CGE) has decided to maintain its growth forecast for this year at 2.3% pending the evolution of tourism in the months of August and September and has lowered its estimate of the public deficit to a fork between 3.8% and 4% of GDP.
In its Financial Observatory, released this Friday, the General Council of Economists estimates that the Spanish economy will register positive growth in the third quarter of the year due to the effect of tourism, which is approaching pre-pandemic levels.
"The tourist season is expected to last until September and, to a lesser extent, October, with higher quality tourism and higher average spending per tourist," says the CGE, which points out that it is domestic demand that is pulling the Spanish economy given the weakness of external demand.
The CGE underlines that, despite the fact that uncertainty regarding the evolution of the economy remains, the recession "seems to be moving away from the euro zone", although some European countries have registered "very timid" year-on-year growth. in the second trimester.
This is the case of Italy (0.6%), France (0.9%) and the United Kingdom (0.4%), whose data contrasts with the contraction in Germany (-0.1%) and the growth of Spanish GDP by 1.8% year-on-year.
Economists see the possibility that, with current inflation rates in the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) will increase interest rates at its next meeting to 4.5% to continue fighting inflation. The CGE forecast is that the average CPI for this year will stand at 3%.
Given the "good behavior" of the first semester, the CGE has revised downward its estimate of the public deficit for this year to a range of between 3.8% and 4% of GDP.
However, economists show their concern about the effect that the increase in financial expenses derived from the increase in public debt in absolute terms and interest rates could have on the deficit, as well as the impact that the aging of the population could have on the evolution of pensions.
Regarding unemployment, economists expect that the effects of the end of the tourist season on employment will be offset by other sectors, such as Education. For this reason, they maintain their estimate of the unemployment rate at the end of the year at 11.8%.
Regarding the public debt, the CGE anticipates that, if its economic growth forecast of 2.3% is fulfilled, the debt will represent 110.5% of GDP at the end of the year (in June it stood at 113.1 % of GDP).