With less than a week to go before the provincial election in Ontario, almost half of the province's residents (45%) expect a victory for Doug Ford's Progressive Conservative Party (PPCO), according to the most recent Ipsos poll.

Released on Friday, the poll also indicates that 14% of respondents think Steven Del Duca's Liberals will win the election and 10% of those polled think it will be Andrea Horwath's New Democrats instead who will end up in government on June 3. However, almost a third of respondents (32%) have no idea who will win the election.

"Even the people who currently vote for the Liberal Party — about 14% — or the NDP about 10% still think their parties aren't going to win," said Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, in an interview with Global. News. "They're there with them in mind, but they don't necessarily think there will be an effect on the outcome."

Expected victory, limited participation

The victory of the outgoing Prime Minister expected for some time, the poll also reveals that only 61% of those polled are decided that they will exercise their right to vote. This is a slight increase from the same time of the campaign, in 2018.

However, Darrell Brickler expects a bit lower turnout than in 2018. “I expect it will be good if we get something close to last campaign, but last campaign was a lot more uncertain. “, he explained. “When campaigns are big or the outcome is more uncertain, people tend to participate more.”

Ontarians are expected to go to the polls on June 2. Advance voting, already underway since May 19, will be held until Saturday. The survey was conducted with 1,501 Ontarians between March 11 and March 16, 2022.