Officials from the M5 and the FBI yesterday made alarming remarks in an extremely rare joint conference.

According to them, China has increased its espionage efforts considerably over the past three years. In light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it would be trying to immunize itself against possible US and allied sanctions, should it decide to invade Taiwan.

In fact, to use their terms, such maneuvers are an unmistakable sign for the intelligence community. China plans to take Taiwan by force soon.

American generals had warned that such an invasion could occur by 2027, when the Chinese army would be certain to have acquired a significant superiority over the American army in the region.

not so fast

However, the day when Xi Jinping will be able to set foot in Taiwan may not be so close, and this for several reasons.

First, the Chinese army has not experienced a real baptism of fire. Its strength remains theoretical. Second, economic sanctions against China could have greater effects than those suffered by Russia. Finally, Chinese weaponry is largely based on Russian military technologies. However, in Ukraine, the Russian armament proved to be inferior to the American armament.

What protects Taiwan

For the moment, two factors prevent Taiwan from falling into the fold of the Chinese Communist Party. First, the US military remains capable of defending Taiwan or, at least, of inflicting heavy casualties on the Chinese military. Then, the democracies are still vigorous, and the Chinese totalitarian system is repugnant to the Taiwanese. The treatment reserved for Hong Kong under Xi Jinping foreshadows that which would be reserved for Taiwan.

However, if the democracies weakened further or the United States could no longer defend Taiwan or if Hong Kong was better treated by China, negotiations for the reintegration of Taiwan would become inevitable.

Is Xi Jinping as in a hurry with Taiwan as Vladimir Putin with Ukraine? It seems so.