Expert opinions are on the rise. Quebec will have to fully dispose of the levers in immigration to curb the decline of French. But what will the Caquists do in the face of the new federal refusal? What can happen afterwards?

• To read also: The bulletins of the week at the National Assembly

François Legault, who has become a specialist in the mood of Quebecers, could say that "no one is jostling on the buses" for Quebec to repatriate powers in immigration, as he had done to bury his commitment to reform the voting system. .

Citizens are mostly concerned about inflation. By the increasingly exorbitant cost of refueling and their grocery basket.

Already far ahead in the polls, the caquistes relish this theme imposed for the election campaign, since they have camped out as "portfolio champions" of Quebecers since 2018.

François Legault not only respected all his commitments on this subject, but he added a few layers due to the soaring prices. A $400 for less well-off couples at the start of the year. A $500 per taxpayer earning less than $100,000 in the Girard budget.

He leaves the possibility of giving back these days, but it will rather be an electoral commitment, which would materialize quickly in the fall as soon as the re-election, assure us of government sources.

future of the nation

However, in the case of the power of selection in immigration, Mr. Legault himself said that it was a crucial issue for the future of the nation.

Professors Pierre Fortin and Marc Termote, whom his government has appointed, plead for Quebec to regain "direct control of permanent immigration, which it has lost", by repatriating powers in temporary immigration.

François Legault has already called for the management of the family reunification program to increase the share of Francophone immigration, but Justin Trudeau did not flinch.

The Parti Québécois is striving to list the refusals of the federal government since the election of the CAQ: no single tax return, no increase in health transfers, no additional power in immigration.

Even for the ban on handguns, in a context where the outbreak of violence worries, François Legault puts very little pressure on the federal government to act.

To defend himself, the Prime Minister cited agreements reached with Ottawa on Thursday, including “the agreement on childcare services of 6 billion without any conditions”. This is not a snatch gain. The Trudeau government having chosen to create an existing national daycare program in Quebec, it was only a question of the fair share in compensation.

The real battles

For the real battles, what will the Caquists do? Mr. Legault spoke of the need to obtain a “strong mandate” to negotiate.

He already has one. In his entourage, there is talk of a "pedagogy to do" to raise awareness among Quebecers. We also bet on the fact that “Justin Trudeau is not eternal”.

In the event of repeated refusals from Ottawa, since François Legault does not intend to brandish a threat of independence, what are the other options?

Perhaps put its popularity and its weight in the balance to ask Quebecers to vote for another federal party? Ah, wait, there was an attempt, already, without success.

When François Legault leaves politics, he risks leaving his CAQ heirs the weight to decide what actions to take after having demonstrated federal intransigence.

If Simon Jolin-Barrette and Sonia LeBel are in the running, the strategy options could be very different.

Can the CAQ remain a harmonious coalition of federalists and separatists on pause?