In the third quarter of 2023, the Spanish economy as a whole would recover its production levels prior to the pandemic
MADRID, 25 Dic. (EUROPA PRESS) -
Equipo Económico has revised its growth forecasts for the Spanish Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2022 slightly upwards to 4.7% and has raised its estimates for 2023 to 2.1%, coinciding with the Government's projections.
Equipo Económico analysts estimate, however, that it will not be until the third quarter of 2023 when the Spanish economy as a whole recovers its production levels prior to the Covid-19 pandemic.
In addition, from Equipo Económico they have anticipated that for next year, everything indicates that the intense electoral calendar throughout the year will mark economic policy decisions, without "going in the right direction."
For this reason, they insist that, in a scenario of high international geopolitical uncertainty, where relevant risks and imbalances persist, respect for the institutional framework, certainty in regulation, coherence in the orientation of economic policy and the promotion of reforms are key factors in contributing to the sustainability of growth and in maintaining the competitiveness of the Spanish economy.
For their part, with a view to 2024, experts project GDP growth of 2.3%, although they warn that, despite the positive role of the 'Next Generation EU' funds in promoting investment, the Spanish economy would continue to only slightly above its potential growth level and will not allow it to correct its main imbalances.
Regarding the rise in prices, the Economic Team has anticipated that inflationary pressures will continue to be high, but with less intensity thanks to the softening of supply shocks in the global economy, and they have estimated that the average annual growth rate of the Index of Consumer Prices (CPI) in Spain will be 8.4% in 2022.
Looking ahead to 2023, analysts forecast that average inflation will stand at 3.9%, with sharp drops during the spring and summer months thanks to the high price indices registered in the same months of 2022. By 2024, for Finally, an average annual growth of the CPI of 3.5% is projected.
As regards employment, experts believe that the dynamism of the labor market will be less intense in line with the evolution of activity. The positive employment data registered since the beginning of the year and the reactivation of the tourism sector will allow employment to grow by 3.9% in 2022 and, thanks to continued economic growth, 2.7% in 2023 and 2.3 % in 2024. So the unemployment rate will be 13%, 12.8% and 12.5%, respectively, in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
Additionally, they consider that the strong increase in tax revenues by the State will cause the public deficit to stand at 4.2% of GDP in 2022, and that it will remain at 4% of GDP in the following two years, 2023. and 2024, in the absence of a sufficient level of consolidation on the public spending side.