The rise in prices impacts the inflation forecast for 2022
MADRID, 14 Feb. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The economic growth forecasts made by Axesor (now EthiFinance Ratings), the 'Economía de Madrid' Study Center (CEEM-URJC), the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE) and Metyis have been the institutions that came closest to increasing the Gross Domestic Product with which the Spanish economy ended 2022 (5.5%), according to 'Diana Esade 2022'.
Specifically, Axesor (now EthiFinance Ratings), the 'Economía de Madrid' Study Center (CEEM-URJC) and the Institute of Economic Studies (IEE) considered forecasts for GDP of 5.7%, while Metyis placed it at 5.3%.
They have been followed by AFI, Funcas, Oxford Economics, Repsol, Bank of Spain and the International Monetary Fund, all with forecasts of 5.8%. All the institutions, except Equipo Económico (with a forecast of 5.2%) and Metyis (5.3%), forecast a higher GDP than the one that has finally been registered.
The deviation between the average forecasts (6.1%) and the increase in GDP with which the Spanish economy ended in 2022 (5.5%) stood at 0.6 percentage points, a lower difference than that registered for the 2021 financial year, which was 2 points.
With these results, the Esade Economic Diana, which calculates the average of the degree of success in the last three years (2020, 2021 and 2022), places Repsol, IEE and Metyis as the institutions that have most accurately forecast the behavior of the recent Spanish economy. They are followed, in this order by the OECD, Cemex, Banco de España and the International Monetary Fund.
In general, the degree of success of the institutions analyzed for the single year of 2022 has been greater in the field of GDP, where the average forecast anticipated a growth of 6.1% (0.6 points higher than 5.5% real), than in the labor field, where they forecast an unemployment rate last year of 14.7% when it was finally 12.9%, 1.8 percentage points less.
At this point, the study shows that CaixaBank and the Government have been the institutions that have known how to most accurately anticipate the unemployment rate with which 2022 ended (12.9%), forecasting 14% and 14.1%. , respectively.
They have been followed by BBVA, Ceprede and Intermoney with a deviation, the three institutions, of 1.3 percentage points above. All the institutions have forecast an unemployment rate higher than the one that has finally been registered --specifically the deviation between the average forecasts (14.7%) and the unemployment rate with which 2022 ended (12.9% ) has stood at 1.8 points--, and they have been more accurate than in the previous year, where the deviation was 5 points.
With the previous results, the Esade Employment Diana, which calculates the average of the degree of success in the last three years (2020, 2021 and 2022), places Ceprede, the research services of Santander and Intermoney as the institutions that have more accurately predicted the most recent behavior of the Spanish labor market. They are followed by BBVA, Repsol, ICAE and the Government.
Given the current situation, characterized by a significant and persistent rise in inflation, this year 'Diana Esade' incorporates a first analysis of inflation forecasts.
The rise in prices has surpassed all the institutions, whose forecasts have been well below the inflation values with which 2022 has ended.
Regarding general inflation, ICAE-UCM and Funcas have been the institutions that have come closest to the 5.7% registered in 2022, with forecasts of 2.4% and 2%, respectively. They were followed by the Loyola University of Andalusia, CEEM-URJC and Intermoney, with a deviation between 3.6 and 3.7 percentage points below real inflation.
The case of core inflation has been particularly relevant, with the highest forecast among all the institutions of 1.7%, compared to 7% with which this variable ended in 2022.
The lower accuracy in forecasting core inflation is due to the fact that, while the drop in energy prices in the second half of the year has helped to close the gap with headline inflation forecasts, core inflation has been more persistent and has accelerated. its growth throughout 2022.
CEEM-URJC, the Economic Team and Intermoney have been the institutions that have come closest to the value of underlying inflation with forecasts of 1.7% and 1.6%, respectively. They were followed by the research services of CaixaBank and Mapfre Economics, with a forecast of 1.5%.
With these results, the ESADE Inflation Target, which analyzes the average degree of success in the last three years (2020, 2021 and 2022), places Ceprede, the Loyola University of Andalusia and the research services of CaixaBank and Intermoney as the institutions that have most accurately forecast the most recent behavior of inflation calculated on the general consumer price index. They are followed by Funcas, CEEM/URJC and ICAE.
