MADRID, 28 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The number of unemployed will again exceed the three million barrier in the last quarter of this year, reaching 3,002,500 unemployed, compared to the 2,980,200 unemployed with which the third quarter closed, according to predictions by The Adecco Group Institute, the study and dissemination center of the Adecco group.
If this estimate, measured in terms of the Active Population Survey (EPA), is fulfilled, unemployment will rise in the last quarter of this year by some 22,800 people, 0.7% more than the previous quarter. However, in interannual values, it will fall by 3.3%.
For the first quarter of 2023, Adecco's forecast is that EPA unemployment will climb to 3,025,800 unemployed, with quarterly growth of 0.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%.
With these figures in hand, Adecco calculates that the unemployment rate will be 12.8% for both the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2023, compared to the 12.67% existing at the end of the third quarter of this year. year.
As for the number of employed persons, Adecco's forecasts suggest that it will stand at 20,551,400 people for the fourth quarter of this year, almost the same figure as in the previous quarter (20,545,700) and 1.8% more. at year-on-year rate.
For the first quarter of 2023, a volume of employed persons of 20,567,000 people is projected, which will mean an increase of 0.1% in the quarter and 2.4% year-on-year.
Regarding the average affiliation to Social Security, Adecco expects to reach 20,285,978 people this month (0.01% month-on-month; 2.7% year-on-year); in 20,297,368 in the month of December (0.1% intermonthly; 2.4% interannual), and in 20,308,758 in the month of 2023 (0.1% intermonthly; 3.5% interannual).
Regarding GDP, Adecco's projections point to a quarterly drop of 0.1% in the fourth quarter of this year, four tenths below the growth expected for the third quarter. In year-on-year terms, GDP will rebound by 1.4% in the last quarter of the year, a rate 2.4 points lower than that of the third quarter of 2022, according to Adecco.
The director of The Adecco Group Institute, Javier Blasco, stressed that both job creation and the reduction in unemployment "will continue to be better than would be expected in an adverse economic context such as the current one", characterized by high inflation rates, rising interest rates, lower consumer confidence and public debt "almost double the maximum limit of the European Stability Pact".