In Ottawa, there are always two topics of discussion that come up, especially when it's a minority government: the next cabinet shuffle and the date of the next election.

Last year, when Justin Trudeau shaved off his beard at the start of the summer season, rumors surrounding the next campaign skyrocketed.

Several political observers have seen the sign of the start of the campaign. They were finally right. But people close to Justin Trudeau told me a few months later that they were not aware that their boss was going to change his look before the campaign.

Groundhog Day?

Last week, Justin Trudeau arrived with a new haircut. It didn't take five minutes before social media ignited.

A few analysts have written papers wondering about a possible election this fall. Thus, the Liberals could take the new Conservative leader, who will be elected on September 10, by surprise.

Realistically, if the prime minister hadn't launched a pointless campaign last year, this would be a plausible scenario. But in today's context, that's pure science fiction.

The Liberals signed an agreement with the New Democratic Party. It will not last until 2025, but Justin Trudeau can govern without breaking his head too much by the next budget next spring.

The next time...

Beyond the date of the next campaign, we have to wonder if Justin Trudeau will be in the next electoral appointment.

Unlike at the start of the year, we have felt for some time that Justin Trudeau has more of a taste for throwing down the gloves against Pierre Poilievre, probably the future leader of the CCP.

If the prime minister runs again, he must win a majority.

Otherwise, it's retirement! Liberal members are watching him, Justin Trudeau has no room for error.