The year 2023 could be even more eventful than 2022. Five issues in particular should hold our attention. Some of them could even escalate into World War III.
It has been a long time since we have been so close to such a catastrophe. Fortunately, the worst is never certain. It is important to understand the central issues of 2023 to avoid descending into panic.
1. War in Ukraine may escalate and Putin may fall
Vladimir Putin has announced that he will significantly increase the size of his army. He also decided to use hypersonic weapons to fight against the Patriot missiles that the Americans will supply to Ukraine. Russia is pushing China to get more involved with it in the war. It seeks to involve Belarusian troops directly in the conflict. Putin is playing the future of his dictatorship in this war. So he's ready to go all the way. The Ukrainians will never accept the Russian occupation and they too are ready to go all the way. The risks of conflict spillover are therefore higher than ever. But given the pitiful way the Russian military has behaved so far, it is by no means certain that Putin will manage to win this war. If the people and other Russian leaders also come to this conclusion, then Putin's future is numbered.
2. Will Taiwan be invaded?
It would be as illogical for China to invade Taiwan as it was for Russia to invade Ukraine. However, the Chinese army has never been so powerful. Xi Jinping would also like to make history by regaining control of Taiwan. The longer Xi waits, the more Taiwan risks strengthening its military. But conversely, the Chinese economy is in bad shape and invading Taiwan would greatly harm the country's trade.
3. Will the Iranian regime fall?
Joe Biden said before Christmas that the nuclear development deal with Iran was dead. It is likely that Iran now has enough enriched uranium to build a few atomic bombs. The United States seems resigned to seeing Iran possess atomic weapons. But not Israel, whose government includes several religious fanatics. How will they react? What will Saudi Arabia do? Meanwhile, the Iranian population continues to challenge the power in place. Iran risks becoming ungovernable and more dangerous than ever.
4. Will inflation come down?
Now virtually all countries are experiencing high inflation. This inflation swells popular discontent in several places, such as Pakistan, the United Kingdom or Sri Lanka. The governments of many countries are struggling with the following dilemma: raising wages too much will also increase inflation and it will then be difficult to break this vicious circle, but, on the other hand, not raising wages enough could induce a recession and generate serious social problems.
5. What will be the results of the elections in India and Turkey?
Several countries will hold general elections in 2023, including Turkey in June. Recep Tayyip Erdogan seems to be in trouble. He has imprisoned several of his opponents, including Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, but polls show he could still lose the election. Erdogan is an Islamist who is destroying Atatürk's secular heritage and driving his country away from Europe. A victory for Erdogan would set Turkey further down the path of dictatorship. The country would continue to destabilize the region.
Happy new year to everyone ! Thank you for doing me the honor of reading me.