One might think that Québec solidaire (QS) has all the cards to make a breakthrough in the next election.
A respected leader, first. Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois communicates well and embodies the aspirations of the Quebec left.
Quebecers even see in him, more than all the other leaders, a future prime minister.
Their parliamentary team is devilishly efficient. There are elected ministers: Christine Labrie, Ruba Ghazal and Émilise Lessard-Therrien...
Quebeckers, consensual to the square, want “at the same time”: a strong government in the face of a strong opposition.
And QS is considered the best opposition to the government.
An opposition party is therefore likely to emerge.
Last point: their media coverage is favourable. A benevolence certainly reigns in his place.
However, QS is stagnating at 14%.
Their voters are still wondering – 52% can still change their minds according to the latest Léger poll.
He also garners less support than in the 2018 election, where he had 16%.
Worse, when we analyze the polls for ten years, he has only won 5% at best!
QS is unable to speak to voters outside of academic centers.
Quebec, which rises early, does not vote in solidarity.
The worker, who commutes between the suburbs and the cities, votes first for the CAQ.
The union members support the anti-unionist Duhaime as much as QS.
Something is wrong somewhere for this left without the people.
QS first suffers from its nationalist ambiguity.
He should have, for example, defended law 101 in CEGEP.
The promotion of French-speaking CEGEPs should have challenged them.
Defending the collegial status quo, which funds our own Anglicization and the creation of an Anglophile elite, is somewhat paradoxical.
It also reveals a lack of courage, because one can only suspect electoral clientelism: their potential gains in Montreal would be targeted by such a measure.
Solidarity will one day have to occupy the terrain of nationalism, which is essential for Quebecers, even if this risks displeasing some activists.
That QS define its vision of the Quebec nation. That he stands out from the PLQ. Let him clearly state that it is not for federal legal instruments to define the future of Bill 21, but here, politically. May he firmly defend Quebec against the constant and defamatory media attacks from English Canada.
The nationalist timidity of QS is life insurance for the CAQ.
Perhaps he would pay the price for political purity, but above all he would have the ear of new voters.
The other sticking point comes from the latest Léger poll.
QS is dead last when we ask Quebecers which training is best suited to face a recession. Barely 5% of Quebecers trust them.
Even their own constituents are worried!
QS may well wish to “go beyond capitalism” and a “socialization of economic activities”.
In reality, the voter is not willing to take such a risk for his standard of living. Solidarity will have to accept it.
QS needs a Parizeau moment, like the PQ in 1969.
A time when an economic figure of the system will stamp economic credibility on the party.
To be right or to win?
The next election raises a fundamental issue: establishing an alternative to the Legault government.
What seems obvious to me is that the return of progressivism to power will go through either a refocusing of QS, a merger of the left and center left parties, or the creation of a new party.
There are possible passages if the solidarity really wishes it.