Economist, Corona follow: I'm positive

An economic crisis like the one 12 years ago was not expected because of the Corona, says Economist Marcel Fratzscher. It'll be for small businesses. break i

Economist, Corona follow: I'm positive

An economic crisis like the one 12 years ago was not expected because of the Corona, says Economist Marcel Fratzscher. It'll be for small businesses.

break in Wall Street, 9.3.2020 photo: Yuki Iwamura/ap

Mr Fratzscher, the world economic crisis of 2008 was caused by a Situation in which no one was able to assess the risks properly. At the time, due to toxic real estate loans. Today, because of a Virus. The situations are comparable?

Marcel Fratzscher: In many ways, this is not comparable. At that time, there was an error in the financial system with a systemic importance for the national economy. Today, there is a slump in the real economy, but is not structural. The hope is that the downturn is now much milder, shorter and less disruptive. I am very positive that there will not be nearly as bad as 12 years ago.

with the low interest rates have built up huge risks, warn many. In the US, for example, there are a lot of completely over-indebted Oil and gas company, which could only survive because of cheaper interest rates. This is not fatal?

Yes, of course. It is clear that what is happening now, will be driving the company into bankruptcy. Since some industries are specifically exposed: travel companies, export companies, the ' supply chain parts of the global luxury goods, for which the demand falls especially.

At Thursday's Council meeting at the European Central Bank. Christine Lagarde must announce measures to tackle the crisis. However, many Economist*indoor have warned for years that the ECB could not respond because of the zero interest rate policy crises.

should the ECB do not underestimate them, you can a lot of. The Talk about the incapacitated Central Bank, I've been hearing for ten years. I expect that the ECB will focus on small and medium-sized enterprises. You can, for example, say commercial banks: If you forgive tidy loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, then you can get the liquidity to do that, one of us will be significantly less than otherwise. There is already a program that can expand the ECB. That you will lower the interest rates or bonds of large, exchange-buys-listed companies, I think that's not very likely, because that would hardly remain in effect.

Marcel Fratzscher, 49, is one of Germany's best-known Economists. He is head of the German Institute for economic research (DIW) and Professor of macroeconomics, Humboldt-University of Berlin

Help the take also micro? Restaurants, Caterers, craftsmen, masseurs, which now orders are falling by the wayside?

The micro-enterprises which helps almost nothing. The do not need loans to pay their bills. The Situation is, of course, hard as a hammer. Which can help you on short-time working money, if you have employees. You could also push the tax burden to the future. To be honest, however, to say that These companies will be hit hard. Which is only helped if the crisis is quickly over. Longer than two, three months, many of the café owner or the handyman will not be able to bridge such a Situation.

The liberals say get rid of: Now the solos for the upper income. What's the point?

no. This is typical clientele policy. I must warn you, the crisis is now for the own party program to take advantage of. The Soli-elimination for the bottom 90 percent of income is already on 1. July advanced, the also helps. If one got rid of the solos, even for the top earners, then the nine billion cost and is to combat the crisis completely inefficient. Small artisans and the self-employed will help. Also the consumption is not stimulated, because the top earners in the rules, most save, if you are relieved. It would make more sense to relieve the burden on the lower income, the the the consumption. We have proposed to reduce VAT on a temporary basis. This would be of benefit to all.

you have to say goodbye to the "debt brake" in Germany and the EU, so the States have to respond to the crisis?

Yes, absolutely. It makes fiscal rules, in order to keep in good times, a good house in the bad times, help people. And if that is not an emergency situation, what then? If the Federal government adopted a awake soft economic program, with three billion euros more in investments in the year, this is not really a pulse. At the same time, the Federal government wants to keep the black Zero. This is completely the wrong Signal in times when the economy needs a clear and strong support of the state.

Date Of Update: 10 March 2020, 17:00

Yorum yapabilmek için üye girişi yapmanız gerekmektedir.

Üye değilseniz hemen üye olun veya giriş yapın.