coincidence or climate change? A research team has analysed the Australian weather conditions during the devastating forest fires – with a clear result.
BERLIN taz | Now, it is also probably Australia's climate change sceptic Prime Scott Morrison: The climate crisis has made the devastating forest fires in Australia more likely. This has been demonstrated, the international research team World Weather Attribution in a study. Climate protection-brakeman Morrison had denied a connection vehemently.
"Extreme heat is significantly influenced by climate change, and favored fire," says co-author Sophie Lewis from the University of New South Wales, the Australian capital of Canberra. A wave of heat as that which prevailed in December, 2019 in the South-Eastern Australia, the climate change of the study were twice as likely to.
weather does not equal climate, and a long time it was in the field of climate research, a single weather event like a heat wave could lead not back to the climate change. Even purely physically, but experts are clear that climate change has today consequences. Finally, it has warmed up the air to the surface of the earth since industrialization already by an average of more than 1 degree Celsius.
This effect, attempt to quantify the attribution science. The basic idea: investigating the properties of the occurring weather event – and makes the observation data on the Computer in complex climate models. Thus, the researchers can calculate how likely the weather event would have occurred in a hypothetical world without the heated earth. And then again, how likely it was with the real climate data. The connection is compared.
How strong forest fires fail, has to do not only with the temperature. As for the weather, play Wind and precipitation. In fact, Australia had a drought this the scientists:the interior but rather to natural weather phenomena.
The fire-favourable weather conditions in the Whole of the climate change have made 30 per cent more likely, at least. The actual value could be much higher, says World Weather Attribution. The reason is that Many climate models underestimate the heat wave Trend. Depending on how it is calculated, one arrives at different values – in the middle on an 80 percent increased probability.
A distinctive feature of the studies of the World Weather Attribution group, published their findings before an independent specialist College:have tested it, as it would be in the science is actually common. This is not to say, however, that the approach is unscientific. The applied methods are time-tested, and by the usual methods of testing have gone.
The approach has a simple Background: The attribution studies are primarily to inform the Public relatively quickly about the current weather events. "We need the attribution studies in order to understand what global climate change on-site means to people," says co-author Friederike Otto, of Oxford University, a pioneer of attribution science.
the researchers have played indoor the Whole thing for a world which has warmed by two degrees. This is the brand that want to crack the States of the world according to Paris agreement, in no case. A fire-blasting the weather would then turn up in Australia, at least four times as often as in the past.
If all the States would implement their existing climate objectives completely, would, according to various calculations on an earth rhitzung between three and four degrees.Date Of Update: 05 March 2020, 18:00