Hundreds of millions of people to live: McKinsey's dramatic scenario on climate change

a 1.1 degree increase in the global average temperature since pre-industrial times, a further two to three degrees, it could go up to 2050 to the top. That does

Hundreds of millions of people to live: McKinsey's dramatic scenario on climate change

a 1.1 degree increase in the global average temperature since pre-industrial times, a further two to three degrees, it could go up to 2050 to the top. That doesn't sound dramatic. "The pure average conceals, however, the large spatial inequality," writes the McKinsey Global Institute in its new study on climate change. Because the temperature is increasing not only in the average, the distribution curve is always flat, that is to say, the weather is extreme take. Unusually hot summer were that by 2015, about 15 percent of the earth's surface – prior to 1980, it was 0.2 percent.

for A year, the researchers examined nine regions of the earth, so, what are the consequences of unabated climate change on them. Their conclusion: not to be Done, could be the life of the climate change "hundreds of millions of people, trillions of dollars of economic power, as well as the physical and the natural capital of the world".

What is mean about the heat extreme, shows the Best example of India. Today, around half of the gross domestic product is generated under the open sky, mainly in the agricultural and mining sectors.

Alone, India loses 1.8 trillion Euro

"In the current development here in 2050, between 160 and 200 million people will live in regions that have a five percent probability of fatal heat waves would be," write the analysts. "Deadly" is as a minimum three-day heat phase, with more than 34 degrees in the shade defined, based on the assumption that people have to work in this weather for eight hours in the open.

can There be under such conditions not worked, would decrease the productivity of India. That could cost according to McKinsey calculations, up to 4.5 percent of gross domestic product. That would be in 2050, in India's case, the enormous sum of 1.8 trillion euros.

grain belt at the worst

affected As bad, it would meet a lot of other regions in the "grain belt" of the earth. In only six regions, currently around 60 per cent of the wheat, Maize, rice and soya in the world are harvested. They are all in places that are now threatened by more extreme weather. The probability of crop failures, rising prices climb: "the Historical examples show us that short-term price increases would be 100 percent, then not uncommon."

The impact would be felt as far away as Germany. Reduced production volumes in Asia, for example, in the case of Rare earths would disrupt the supply chains of German companies, in addition, the export-oriented German industry would have a Problem to sell their products in countries due to climate change, have less money available. AP/dpa A verdursteter elephant in Zimbabwe

Marseille with the climate of Algiers

The industrial countries of the Northern hemisphere are affected according to the study, but also directly. In the US, for example, McKinsey expects more Hurricanes and floods. This will hit the sunshine state of Florida. The value of the real estate here would be reduced by 2050 by around 80 billion dollars, according to the calculations of the researchers, while insurance premiums rise – provided that corporations insure the flood-prone houses at all. Because taxes are based on the value of the property, attributed to McKinsey for many regions up to 30 percent less revenue.

In Europe it is also the case with agriculture. In past summers we have experienced in this country more frequent and prolonged Droughts. A phenomenon that is likely to intensify in the future. "2050 is likely to resemble the climate in Marseille is more of Algiers today," the researchers write. This will affect not only the farmers, but also tourism.

decline in fish catch, with extreme consequences

Also on fishing, climate change has according to McKinsey, drastic effects: the warming of the oceans, fishing by 2050, it could go to eight per cent, and the livelihoods of 650 to 800 million people around the world to affect it.

airports have to adjust to the consequences of global warming. A quarter of the most important airports is located less than ten meters above sea level and could, according to the study "serious risks associated be" by flood and storm exposed. In addition, the heat is likely to have an impact on the flight plan and lead to numerous failures.

Germany could easily

profit is Questionable, according to McKinsey, also, that climate change is increasing and the inequality on earth. While the Equator nearby, today the poorer countries are threatened by extreme weather effects and the associated costs, would continue to benefit Northern countries.

For Canada, about the researchers, and even increasing crop yields in agriculture, in Germany and the Netherlands, the tourists could rise, if it is holidaymakers in the Mediterranean to hot and dry. Also, the rain volumes should rise slightly, while the water to decrease inventories in North Africa, Greece, and Spain.

in a Global perspective, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages but. McKinsey expects that, under current conditions, so that by 2050 up to 20 percent of the work weather be hours worldwide due to twice as many as today. This would cost the world economy up to 5.4 trillion euros in the year – in a average year.

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Date Of Update: 19 January 2020, 01:01

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