Corona triggers an economic crisis, the Dax falls to the Ground. Economists of all camps a call for state intervention, the right Central Bank.
BERLIN taz | for the European Central Bank are unusual times: At its meeting on Thursday, some members of the ECB were active Council because of the Coronavirus online-only. Everything had gone well, said ECB President Christine Lagarde later. They had the difficult task to respond to the economic shocks in the corona of a crisis: The DAX fell on Thursday, in the meantime, surreal 12 per cent, the European Index, EuroStoxx50, is heading for the biggest one-day loss in its history. The lies of Donald Trump, he imposed a U.S. travel stop for Europeans, smells like a panic reaction, and even more nervous. In addition, many Analyst had expected the interior of the ECB's measures.
Lagarde pushed, in principle, responsibility, and called on primarily the European States to Act. The Central Bank is so open, how little can they do just. "No Central Bank in the first row in the answers. The need to be First and foremost fiscal policy. We expect that there is this reaction,“ said Lagarde in the direction of the EU-States.
The ECB plays the Ball to the policy, because it has limited possibilities. The US-based Bank and the British Central Bank had previously cut interest rates, but the ECB are already at zero. Lagarde is in a good Tradition, her predecessor, Mario Draghi, had animated the EU countries to more spending to stimulate the economy.
the measures taken by The ECB fell short of the expectations of the financial markets. Many commentators had speculated that it would lower the Deposit interest rate of minus 0.5% more: Parking commercial banks, money at the ECB, you will pay currently, a Penalty rate, in order to lend the money to companies. However, the penalty interest rate remained unchanged.
The ECB acts in this manner because the crisis is different today than it was in 2008. At the time, a real-estate bubble burst in the United States. The worthless houses loans dormant as bundled securities on the balance sheets of banks in the world. Because no one knew who is, therefore, next, broke, borrowed to the banks no more money. If the money stops the flow, collapsing the economic system, even if it's company splendidly, and Consumers to buy them the products.
The crisis is now, as it described yesterday's seven leading Economist, and for the economy at the same time a supply and demand shock: If a highly specialised supplier to be in China or Italy, in Germany the factories to a standstill. China is situated at six weeks by sea, the loss of production come first. Add to this that many manufacturing companies can let their employees work from home.
On the demand side, the Problem is that the people from the Coronavirus-affected countries have other things to Worry about than buying a new VW, BMW or Daimler. Perhaps the people to get the, when the crisis is over. However, the so-called "social consumer" is irrevocably gone, so travel, Restaurant or exhibition visits.
come The initial shocks to the economy outside of the financial world. Sascha Steffen is a Professor for Finance at the Frankfurt School of Finance & Management and is not observed if the equity markets with concern. The there is but for the real economy in the short term, irrelevant. Steffen fear, rather, that the credit market dries up. The banks would give very little money to companies, which means fast bankruptcies, job losses, a significant result for all.
companies in a precarious situation, in turn, means that you can't pay back current loans to the banks, maybe. Which is why the banks for these risks, more guarantees a downward spiral to form, and again less for lending have. From Steffen's point of view, it is absolutely necessary that the banks for the economic reconstruction after the crisis stable. Since many of the banks, to be capitalized in Germany, but badly, he demands a radical measure: "We must think of the crisis in 2008 to recapitalize banks with the help of the state," he says.
"We have to think in the crisis of 2008 to recapitalise banks with the help of the state"
Sascha Steffen, Economist
The measures taken by the ECB, aim at least to the same Problem, the lending: they are commercial banks, budget money, but only if you forgive, in turn, loans to the most vulnerable small-or medium-sized companies. Directly to the ECB, these companies could not help. Help you can only a great and indirectly by buying up their bonds on the capital market. Here she promised that more of such corporate loans to a value of 120 billion euros up to the end of the year to 2.7 trillion euros to buy up, in addition to the already piled-up.
Also write to the seven German Economist*that the contribution of the ECB in the crisis was very limited, and call for fiscal measures: tax burden of companies in hour, direct aid via the Kreditanstalt für Wiederaufbau. The think tank Bruegel in Brussels recommends that, following the model of Italy, self-employed and micro-enterprises with direct state payments to help. Lagarde even summarizes what the EU member States need now, in a word: "I call it determination," she said.
Date Of Update: 12 March 2020, 18:00