Pandemic: expert fears no massive economic consequences

The Corona-pandemic in China and the infections in Italy are likely to have a significant impact on the German economy. two examples: The carmaker Daimler has

Pandemic: expert fears no massive economic consequences

The Corona-pandemic in China and the infections in Italy are likely to have a significant impact on the German economy.

two examples: The carmaker Daimler has in the world, according to the "süddeutsche Zeitung" 213 suppliers. Alone, the ten largest related auto parts in 588 companies. And this, in turn, is a buy at around 2900 smaller suppliers. Only a member of this supply chain breaks, the consequences in and for Untertürkheim.

Adidas about 20 percent of its shoes and clothes from China. The local workers stay because of the protective measures long home, come less and less deliveries to Germany.

the industry can react relatively flexibly, such as BMW Board member for Production, Milan Nedeljkovic recently, the "Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung" said. Due to the current Prboleme non-produced passenger Cars would be able to manufacture the BMW in all of the three Chinese works on layer extensions later, the BMW Boss.

Coronavirus presses even now, German economic growth

in Spite of this statment from BMW: The economic Outlook in Germany are looking increasingly gloomy. Only yesterday, Tuesday, the KfW banking group published a forecast. Under the Heading "Corona-Virus is the recovery of the German economy" is delayed, the company announced that the German economy is likely to come in the half-year to 2020, little more than stagnate. KfW-Research, literally: "The outbreak of the Corona Virus extends the already record-long German industrial recession in the year 2020 in." Hope to give it to 2021, but is currently applicable: "The downside risks prevail."

This not only sounds after a short slowdown. KfW Research, KfW expects to see a muted economic development.

The Marcel looks Fratzscher so, President of the German Institute for economic research (DIW). "I am every day alerted, since the Virus does not limit, but rather expands. Also on Europe and in particular Italy,“ said the renowned Economist of the RTL/ntv-editorial.

"Every day is critical," said Fratzscher. Against the Background of the current phase of weakness, the probability is great, that "a permanent harm to the German economy."

China Is extremely important for German economy

Fratzscher correctly, will probably be made soon, of the German Mittelstand.

With his fears, the Star Economist is not alone. In an Interview with FOCUS Online, Julia Pfeil and Florian Mörth of the global law firm, Dentons has answered the question: What are the effects of the Corona-Virus for our economy? "China is a very important trading partner. There are more than 3000 companies and Joint Ventures with German participation in China, and German companies obtain a large part of their Goods and supplies from China. Supply chains today are optimized often so that stocks are kept low and the products 'just in time' at the German manufacturer have to be. If a company has no alternative suppliers, and new suppliers can be established in the rule, not quick and easy so it can cause problems here in Germany, if you were lack of supplies from China, or a massive delay."

SME refers to many Goods from Italy

The scenario described could also apply for the German "Mittelstand" and trade relations with Italy. But to what extent?

Dr. Marco Wagner, Senior Analyst of Commerzbank, emphasizing in an interview with FOCUS Online, Germany's trade exchange with the North of Italy takes place. The currently of corona cases, affected areas are Lombardy and Veneto. German companies from these regions, especially precursors of mechanical engineering, engines, products of chemical industry, and medical technology and products of biotechnology, according to Wagner.

expert reassured worried investors and entrepreneurs

However, the expert is convinced that the Italian government has reacted with the Lockdown of entire communities, "energetic", and a large epidemic probably can prevent. As far as he could mean, judge this as a layman, restricts the economic expert.

Analyst Marco Wagner reassured concerned entrepreneurs and investors with a second Argument. Previous crises have shown that there are usually two phases. During the infection phase, decreases the economic performance, because people are reduce out of a fear of infecting your contacts. Factories are closing, production drops significantly.

In a second Phase, there is usually a large catch-up effects. This applies for example for the car industry: A not-made Golf will be made after resolution of the acute infection phase in extra layers, and then delivered.

But expert Wagner acknowledges, this applies to all industries and services. Who'll be his regular hairdresser visit in a month because of acute risk of Infection, in the following month "twice for a hair cut," says Wagner. In this respect, the corona crisis impact on the SME, the more negative, the longer it lasts. DAX 12.773,77 PTS. -16,72 (-0,13%) Xetra

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New infections in Germany are reported Coronavirus in Europe on the rise of PCP New infections in Germany are reported Coronavirus in Europe on the rise

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Date Of Update: 26 February 2020, 15:00
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