Second SARS epidemic? As bad as the Coronavirus can make markets and the economy

In China back bad memories: The outbreak of a lung disease in the Province of Wuhan, a city stirs in the case of the Chinese, the fear of a similar epidemic suc

Second SARS epidemic? As bad as the Coronavirus can make markets and the economy

In China back bad memories: The outbreak of a lung disease in the Province of Wuhan, a city stirs in the case of the Chinese, the fear of a similar epidemic such as SARS in 2003. The current Coronavirus is related to the SARS pathogen. As in the case of SARS, this disease is a zoonotic disease – transferable from animal to human and Vice versa. A data analysis of Bloomberg's estimated that more than 2800 cases are so far known worldwide, 80 people succumbed to the Virus already.

The development also has consequences for the financial markets and the economy. The Brent Oil price fell since last month continuously and has lost almost ten percent. Crude oil (Brent) 59,32 USD -1,53 (-2,51%), except over-the-counter

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the Chinese Hang Seng slumped last from. The main Index of the stock exchange of Hong Kong lost in the past few days, around 1,000 points, a Minus of 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, reached for both the Dow Jones and the Dax in the past week set new records. But: At the start of the new trading week, the Dax slipped significantly and fell below the mark of 13.300 points. DAX 13.204,77 PTS. -371,91 (-2,74%) Xetra

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The asset Manager Thomas Altmann from QC partner that was a correction, but already overdue. It is only the question of what negative news will trigger a mood swing. This question I have found in the Virus, his response, as Altmann.

the end of the new year is the extent of revealed

This could all be just the beginning. How deadly the new Virus is, and how strong it still can spread, is still uncertain. "The bad news is that the worst is yet to come, as the number of new infections is still rising," - quoted by the stock exchange portal "CNBC" Economist Larry Hu of the investment Bank Macquarie. Small Caps Champion: your 3 pillars for a successful wealth accumulation. Successfully and safely in addition to values invest. (Partner quote) Here is an exclusive free trial!

The Problem: The outbreak festival collides with the Chinese new year – hundreds of millions of Chinese travel across the country to celebrate with families and friends. Therefore, it is uncertain how much the Virus has actually spread. "The answer is to wait for the end of the new year celebrations ... then we will the scale, know the speed of the infection, and even mortality," said David Roche, the Independent Strategy. Therefore, let the Roche to tell whether the epidemic is a pandemic is a global spread across the continents.

consequences of a SARS epidemic

A look back at the SARS outbreak in 2002/2003, shows how dramatically the economic consequences of such an epidemic can be. So an American study from the year 2017, estimated annual losses due to pandemic risks to around $ 500 billion, or 0.6 per cent of global economic power, according to the news Agency Reuters reported.

A second study from the year 2016, in turn, predicted that pandemics in the 21st century. Century, the world economy is good, cost six trillion dollars-a little over US $ 60 billion a year. The actual losses of the SARS epidemic were around 40 billion dollars. Not every country met to the same degree. The SARS Virus has cost the business location of Hong Kong at the time, good for 2.6 per cent of its gross domestic product (GDP), China is well a percent of GDP. With Stock Selection in Europe, you will achieve excess Returns with System! (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge test!

AllianceBernstein-Economist Mo Ji expected that the consequences for China's economy - to our current knowledge about the Virus - and less drastically than in the case of SARS will be. The economist anticipates a GDP loss of 0.8 per cent, should be contained the disease within three months. The containment of the epidemic is delayed, but in nine months, will cost a projected 1.9 percent of GDP.

"will, most probably, the duration of the outbreak somewhere in between," says Mo Ji. Their view is that real GDP will reduce growth in China by the Coronavirus by one percentage point. The Economist therefore expected easing in monetary and fiscal policy of China to reach the growth target of six per cent for the current year.

So, the epidemic could meet

How strong is the outbreak of other countries, also depends on whether China's foreign trade will be Virus-affected. With a share of 11.9 percent of world exports China's foreign trade champion of the world. Currently, the epidemic is largely limited to Wuhan and the surrounding cities - economic cities, but rather of regional importance. In the case of the SARS epidemic, major international transshipment module, however, - and to herds of commercial places such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore, the crisis - attack of the Virus here, in order, are to be feared more pronounced decline in world trade. To the inland port of Wuhan, still no major Hubs of the outbreak, however, are affected.

Still, there are no confirmed cases in Germany. But even if it should remain so, too, will suffer the Federal Republic of Germany under the epidemic. Because China is the main trading partner for Germany's economy. In the year 2018, the volume of traded goods (imports and exports) was with China and to 199.1 billion euros. For the third Time in a row, China was the number One trading partner. Any weakness in the economy, China will feel it indirectly.

For individual sectors, it could be worse. Even now, the epidemic has placed millions of cities in China, lame - people stay out of fear of infection in the home, which could last for months. The presses heavily on the consumption in China, whose beneficiary is our economy, as the trade figures show.

in Particular, the automotive industry might face serious months. China is as a market for the car manufacturers Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW, it is now more important than the United States. The courses are evidence of how strong it could in particular be taken in this sector. Thus, the shares of Volkswagen, BMW and Daimler lost since last Monday's 3.7 percent, 4.1 percent and 6.9 percent. Hard it hit the papers from airlines such as Air France-KLM shares, or the title of Lufthansa.

How strongly these sectors ultimately benefit from the outbreak, can not be said. The above-mentioned sectors are not developed, on a monthly term, necessarily better. The Stoxx lost 600 health of the Euro STOXX 50 by 2.5 percentage points, the health share in the U.S. S&P 500 but in the past 30 days, with plus 1.98% less than the Index itself (plus 3.12 per cent).

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Date Of Update: 28 January 2020, 01:00

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