The large system test: runs the Virus to Germany Crash?

When it comes to the latest spring forecast by the Leibniz-Institute for economic research Halle (IWH), then Germany's production in 2020 will not be reduced,

The large system test: runs the Virus to Germany Crash?

When it comes to the latest spring forecast by the Leibniz-Institute for economic research Halle (IWH), then Germany's production in 2020 will not be reduced, but only by 0.6 percent. "A key risk for the German economy are restrictions on the labor supply, because the massive accumulation of disease, even if you run mostly mild, would temporarily lead to a significant decline in the labour input," says Oliver repeated möller, head of the Department of macroeconomics and Vice-President of the IWH.

Particularly strong in the electronics industry is currently taking action. She is afraid but no job failures, but the primary bottlenecks and delivery problems in supply and production chains. With imports of € 52 billion, China is the "largest foreign supplier for the German electricity market", explains Andreas Gontermann, chief economist of the Central Association of the electrical and electronics industry (ZVEI). The consequences of the Coronavirus in China are for the local economy in General, with a time delay of up to six weeks of use, as long as a container ship from the middle Kingdom needs.

machine builders look bleak in the future

see The future of Germany machine builders bleak. "As far as the today is ever predictable, we expect for 2020 a real production minus five percent," says VDMA President Carl Martin Welcker. In mid-December, the Association was still Minus two percent. "Even assuming that the situation will ease in the second half of the year and the business run better, we will be able to additional declines in this year will not make up for," says Welcker more. In the case of the strong-growth German chemical and pharmaceutical industry is for this year a Stagnation of production and sales. Problems in the supply chains were in the case of some substances, such as disinfectants. The debate on whether active ingredients for antibiotics would have to be more produced in Europe, instead of in India and China, had to be led, stresses, VCI managing Director Wolfgang Great Entrup. FOCUS-MONEY - do You still Hesitate or are You buying already?

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The car manufacturers VW, for example, if you contrast the good things. All of the 33 plants in China were operating again, only the local demand is decreased. The logistics chains are not to be demolished. One or the other Time you had to change from ship to air freight, a alternative suppliers. It was In Italy, where vehicles of the brands Bugatti and Lamborghini are made, the production, despite a shut-off of the country and the supply chains are not broken. "Public life is not, it may have been in Italy to a Standstill, our production is," says a VW spokesman.

car manufacturer VW and the fashion industry are good things

Similar sounds come from the fashion industry. Although we expect prices rising Procurement and delivery delays. But, as Gerd Oliver Seidensticker, President of the German fashion Association, Germany, is sure: "I think the consumers will notice, in view of the Abundance of the supply nothing about it" – may not only the absence of the consumer. The fashion industry has overhang for years an Offer.

The good news: Germany is tested in terms of economic crisis and characterized the Coronavirus is prepared. Short-time working schemes have already proven their worth in the financial crisis, recalls Jörg Krämer, chief economist of Commerzbank. Nobel prize winner in Economics Paul Krugman spoke of a "German employment miracle". After all, while in other EU States employees, instead of sending in short-time working, made redundant, working in Germany during the time of the financial crisis, up to a million people short. So Germany was clearly better through the financial crisis.

so the policy is now in Demand. A group of prominent economists calls in a 15-page paper from the Federal government even more far-reaching measures: "If required, must be waived to address the economic impact of the corona crisis of the Black Zero in the state budget, and there are the game rooms offered by the debt brake."

emergency assistance for firms: short-time working allowances and refunds of social contributions

Generally in favour of the economists from the coalition Committee decided on measures to facilitate the access to short-time working allowances and related reimbursements of social security contributions by the Federal Agency for work. Businesses will shortly be able to work money if at least ten percent of the employees are affected by the work stoppage. Previously, the figure was one third. The Federal Agency for work should also take responsibility for the social insurance contributions in full and not just half. "These measures supported the company to keep Employees and limited so that harmful second-round effects on consumption," according to the Michael Hüther-run Institute of the German economy (IW) in Cologne. If it were possible so to prevent company bankruptcies and redundancies, the Chance is good that the economy is tailing off of the wave of Infection quickly start and fancy production, will be rescheduled if possible.

short-time work can help, while buying incentives from the financial crisis, well-known car scrappage scheme makes little sense if people fear for their Jobs and their money together, or even not in front of the door to trust. Also, not all conceivable assistance for enterprises are promising, if the supply chains are disrupted. The seven economists are calling for an interest-free deferral of advance payments for income tax, corporate tax and value added tax. This liquidity would help to avoid bottlenecks. Because failures due to the Coronavirus, and its consequences cannot be ruled out.

"Economic shock waves that must be curbed"

"If it is not successful, the spread of economic shock waves curb, so that it came in a larger style to corporate insolvencies, would be thinking as a last resort turn to that the state holds equity in the company," the Economists write. That would be an analogy to the financial crisis, as banks are rescued, and were nationalized. In comparison to the banking system in the real economy, however, a much larger number of small and medium-sized enterprises, so that the implementation would be a huge administrative burden, in this respect, the measure seems to be rather unlikely.

The partial abolition of the solidarity surcharge would be easier to handle and the economy, according to the scientists, should be on the 1. July will be preferred, as it calls for the SPD, while the CDU insists more on the beginning of 2021. It would be a measure which arrived immediately in large Parts of the population.

memories of the financial crisis in 2008 Wake up

is reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. It differs greatly from it and other crises. As of 2008, the US Central Bank, the Fed has lowered interest rates, surprisingly, non-scheduled and that a twice as large step as usual. But: reason for previous crises, the outbreak of an infectious disease, but about interest rates, Oil prices, recessions, or wars, was never. In 2008, the market collapsed due to rising interest rates. Last Monday, the yield on 30-year U.S. bonds fell to a new all-time low of 0.99 percent. Americans are looking now for cheap real estate loans during the 2008 financial crisis was triggered by the Crash in the real estate market in the first place. Display trip cancellation insurance: All of the current test winner in comparison! [Display]

a Lot of powder, the Central banks have not, however. The market expects the Fed on the 18. In March, a further reduction in interest rates on the corridor of 0.25 to 0.5 percent, according to the CME's FedWatch Tool. Currently the key rate is 1.0 to 1.25 percent. The ECB has announced further measures, in total, with an interest rate of 0.0 percent but little room. The Bank of England has already responded to the British key interest rate by 0.5 points to 0.25 percent.

Many of the traders are, however, agreed that the corona crisis will not have lasting consequences, such as the financial crisis. "In a month of spooky, could be rum, and the stock market have recovered up to the end of the year," says a Frankfurt Banker. The bottom line is there then an environment with extremely low interest rates, and this is known to be good for shares. In addition, it can be also the fallen Oil price, as a helpful economic stimulus package.

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uwh/with Material of the dpa
Date Of Update: 12 March 2020, 20:00

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