FOCUS Online On the European stock exchanges, the rates plunge. The Dax loses on an hourly basis. How would you rate the Situation?

Stephan Kooths: The current Situation is uncertain. Exactly, and this is reflected on the stock exchanges. But you may not simply just discounts a one-to-one to convert into potential value-added losses You must also see that the courses of the currently prevailing uncertainty is to be driven. As long as it is not clear how it goes on, the actors on the capital markets on speculation the strengthening caused by the end effects.

All the signs on V-shaped curve

FOCUS Online : The first assumes that there is no longer a V-shaped curve. You see the same?

Kooths: no. No matter how rough the path is still: all the indications are that we have to do it with a V-shaped course. After the Virus is over, we will be back, very likely, not only to the former levels of Production and can start working normally again - I reckon even that we can catch up on a part of the production losses.

of Course, we have to underline the forecasts from leading indicators in front of the Coronavirus. These have points in Germany already for the first quarter and again on a clearer revival in Hing. But The basic economic trend was upward - even if this development is currently overshadowed by corona effects, we assume that the recovery is only postponed.

Crucial for the future is: How resilient a German company? How well this thirst by keeping track? Depends on whether it remains a V-effect or a larger hallway entry damage.

loss of production is expected to

FOCUS Online : companies are suffering from a currently-chains, especially of the interrupted delivery. What is your forecast for the German production?

Kooths: From the direct and indirect effects of the subdued economic activity in China, resulting in a possible loss of production of about 0.2 percent for the local economy.

Everything that goes beyond that is very difficult to estimate, especially when it comes to supply chains, what can come from the supply side, in the way of additional background noise. The effects of these problems we see when ships arrive on schedule. Therefore, I also assume that in terms of production disabilities, the worst is yet to come. It all depends on when the ships arrive.

FOCUS Online you just said it: Then it all depends on how well German companies are well prepared for it. What's Your Assessment?

Kooths: It is the Instrument that we have in Germany with short-time working scheme to help. The short-time working will be extended with safety.

on The other, the supply of credit is crucial: companies that are, in principle, economically stable, which are fundamentally healthy, you are not allowed now because of a shortage of liquidity in the wrong location. I see here, but no reason to worry. The commercial banks and companies are well-positioned, with the necessary credits can be granted.

the economic program does not help

FOCUS Online Would help a economic stimulus program?

Kooths: More less. Everything that could be thought of as a stimulus program, it would hardly help. We have to do it so that the Virus-human interaction is interrupted. People do not remain from the Shop home, because they have too little income, but because they avoid contact with others. In contrast, stimulus will not help programs. What helps, however, very accurate, measures such as the short-time working money, you should be set.

FOCUS Online : you Can do the Central banks thing?

Kooths: I don't see any possibilities of monetary policy - neither what are the interest rates still with regard to the supply of Liquidity.

FOCUS Online : Hong Kong gives its citizens, each of 1300 dollars, in order to cushion the crisis. That would be with us make sense?

Kooths : That was a fiscal impulse that is also not necessary because there is an Instrument such as short-time work in Asia typically. If the people there can't seem to work, for whatever reason, then you get no money. In such an institutional environment, one has to resort more once emergency measures. Automatic mechanisms, such as we have in Germany, but they are a lot better.

FOCUS Online Some experts argue for a contingency plan in the Form of an economic winter sleep: frozen share prices, no payments of interest or repayments of principal. What do you think of this idea?

Kooths: The additional Sand would scatter into the transmission and things stop, and must not be stopped at all. Of course, prices in the capital markets are in motion, but that's the way it should be. The prices reflect that something has changed.

A winter sleep would mean that we switch off the signals that the economic System will send the market, easy. So you would lose an important source of information. That is, as if to stop the traffic-light system in road transport, because of too many or too few people are on the go. This makes the matter worse and not better.

Frantic fiscal programs bring nothing

FOCUS Online : so What is your advice to the policy?

Kooths: A thing, Yes: the panic is never a good counselor. Now, with the Situation with a cool head to deal. This also means that one accepts the description on the website of economic interaction as part of the cost caused by such a Virus.

You must not try, unavoidable costs somehow to - or cover - the costs are there. Exactly, that is reflected then in our economic activities in the gross domestic product.

When the economy declines, for reasons which we cannot prevent, it brings nothing to boost the Numbers artificially high by hectic any fiscal programs or monetary policy even more imbalance in an already oversupplied financial sector.

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Date Of Update: 28 February 2020, 16:00