Also, if it feels different: A look at the long-term investment results shows that the Timing of investment decisions with less than 5 percent of the facility contributes to success. Much more important is the basic distribution of the assets to individual asset classes. Nevertheless, the time of the investment is under psychological aspects, is relevant: Because, who wants to buy like today, if it will be tomorrow again much cheaper. Here is our Psyche fails us a trick. Possible losses weigh significantly more than equal to high profits. And if an investment initial losses once the negative Touch, is that the time of his life, not really happy. Therefore, it is no wonder that, in particular, private investors ponder about the right time to buy or sell shares.
#1: technical brands
respect for those Who are familiar with the basics of Technical analysis, of course, can use the support zones or Trends as a guide for the Timing. So you would place a buy order, for example, on a long-term support zone and hope that this holds. In the current environment we experience in the US stock market, this "wild" jump. In the week, was alone in the trade from the 02. to 06. In March, four times the long-term trend channel, exit and re-enter. Means: it is Precisely in exceptional situations, it can give a lot of false signals which can lead to significant losses in Performance. About the experts
Chris-Oliver Schickentanz Chief Investment Officer Commerzbank AG. As a guest columnist he writes in January 2013, at this point regularly for FOCUS Online.
#2: trading rules
In the past, it has been found as a successful strategy, if it is against extreme purchase or sale movements in the markets. Going global is a brand of 1 percent of all invested in risk assets within a period of four weeks as a Signal. Specifically: If within a period of four weeks, more than 1 percent of the previously invested funds out of shares and high-yield bonds to drain, this is a buy signal. Then the market is exaggerating in a pessimistic direction. Conversely, In the case of corresponding inflows, you should go to the seller page. The Problem is that Such a strong movement in the shortest amount of time are extremely rare. In the last ten years, this had only once been the case, namely to 2016, the Fears passed as the market due to China-in the closeout mode. Then stocks fell again, a good 3 percent, more in the following weeks, a strong price recovery started and equities have well performed 10% points better than US government bonds. Currently, such a Signal with the trade at the end of in the United States, on 05.03. generated.
#3: sentiment indicators
to put A similar approach to the above trading rule can be implemented with the help of sentiment indicators. We prefer a sentiment index, the different parameters of the current investor sentiment combined: the positioning of professional investors, the ratio of buy and sell contracts on the futures market, technical indicators such as Market breadth and also the sales activity. This makes, for example, the Ned Davis sentiment indicator that is calculated for various regional indices the stock exchange daily Basis. Here, the indicator Reaches an extreme pessimism level, this indicates a high probability for a positive Performance in the coming 12 months. On average you could earn over the last 17 years in the following 12 months, around 9 per cent per annum. The mood then turns still more to the neutral to moderately positive Terrain, even growth to an average of 12 per cent per annum. Also Vice versa, i.e. as a sales Advisor, to work the Sentiment. On an extreme optimism level, the Performance of stocks with an average of 2 percent p. a., significantly below the normal levels, so that a more cautious gait pays out. The Problem is that sentiment indicators have only in the extreme area of significance. This extreme range may well be for some time "due to" held, without that it comes immediately to a counter-movement. Means: The risk, to early enter the market, is there. Example Europe: Here, the sentiment indicator is already on 26.02 has. in the extreme pessimism range shot, without since then, a significant counter-movement has applied. DAX 9.721,09 PT. +559,96 (+6,11%) Xetra
- 1 day
- 6 months
#4: Fundamental extreme reviews to use
in Particular may pay off in a massive sell-off movements such as the current time to have a look at the fundamental valuation levels. This has proven especially the price/book value ratio. It sets the current price in relation to the balance sheet book values. So it is less prone to significant profit corrections or dividend cuts, and therefore simply more robust than p / e ratio or dividend yield.
The logic is: You look back on previous crises, and uses the reached extreme levels as a starting point to determine the maximum setback risk. The example of the Dax can be seen: In times of Recession, the Dax is usually at a price/book value ratio of 1.2 to his floor and then turns up. In the most severe crises, most recently the financial and economic crisis, a level of 1.0 can be tested. But this is extremely rare. On the current Situation, this would mean A global economic downturn would be priced at a Dax level of 10,500 complete, a still more violent impact, analogous to the financial crisis, it is still only of 8,700 points. The Problem: Mostly the markets are not to test these extreme levels, and turn earlier. Those who rely solely on this timing help may not come clean in the market.
Invest Since all indicators presented have their shadow sides, we use in our investment process is a combination of 1, 2 and 3. Jump two of the three indicators is green and the third yellow, indicates, at the least, we invest gradually in four to five instalments. Through the regular entry of the exact purchase to lose course important. Similar to a monthly savings, you can hope to plan at an attractive average price.
conclusion: courage pays off!
There are numerous helpful instruments that can provide clues for the correct entry point. All these indicators have weaknesses and are not perfect. Above all, they can't replace: the courage to challenge themselves in a downward spiral against the Trend and to act anti-cyclically. This is in the long run, the most successful under.
Other posts by Chris-Oliver dance send FOCUS Online:
- US-election fight begins: you have to rise as investors now
- Geopolitical insurance - gold price knowledge and rises: Seven facts, you need to know now, as an investor,
a virologist Case for Germany is anticipating the Worst and corrected Horror scenario, FOCUS Online/Wochit virologist calculates Worst-Case scenario for Germany, and corrects the Horror-scenarioDate Of Update: 10 May 2022, 16:17