- Nearly two-thirds of Arab youth say tensions between Iran and Israel and the West will escalate into military conflict: ASDA'A BCW's 15th annual survey of Arab youth
DUBAI, UAE, June 20, 2023 /PRNewswire/ -- About two-thirds of young Arabs (60%) say relations between Iran and Israel and the West will deteriorate into military conflict. Many expect the Iranian regime to become even more authoritarian in the future, with almost a third saying that Iran will experience more civil unrest and possibly a coup.
This year's results also highlight shifting geopolitical loyalties in the Arab world, with young people in the region saying they see Turkey and China as their country's stronger allies than traditional powers like the United States and Russia.
These are some of the main findings of ASDA'A BCW's 15th annual survey on Arab youth, released today by ASDA'A BCW, the leading media consultancy in the Middle East and North Africa. The survey is the largest study of its kind on the largest demographic group in the Middle East and North Africa, its more than 200 million young people. This year's results show that young Arabs are "living a new reality," the overarching theme of the 2023 survey.
ASDA'A BCW commissioned leading research firm SixthFactor Consulting to conduct personal interviews with 3,600 Arab citizens aged 18-24 in their home countries between March 27 and April 12, 2023. The largest sample of the survey's history was evenly split between men and women in 53 cities out of a total of 18 Arab states, including South Sudan for the first time.
The 75-year-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict will not be resolved soon
Young Arabs are pessimistic about the prospects for peace in the Palestinian Territories, with the majority of respondents saying that the 75-year-old Palestinian-Israeli conflict will not be resolved in the next five years.
Furthermore, almost four in 10 (39%) young Arabs overall believe that, with rising national priorities, the conflict is not receiving adequate attention from the Arab world, a figure that rises to more than half (51 %) in the Levant region, which includes the Palestinian Territories.
Divergence of opinions on rapprochement with Israel
When young Arabs were asked if they supported or would support their government's decision to normalize diplomatic ties with Israel, three-quarters (75%) of the UAE, signatories to the Abraham Accords, said they supported normalization. A third in Bahrain, the first country to sign the deal, said the same. However, in Sudan, the fourth Arab country to establish full diplomatic ties with Israel, 94% oppose it.
Changing geopolitical allegiances
Among non-Arab nations, 82% of young Arabs named Turkey a "strong ally" or "somewhat ally of their country", followed by China (80%), UK (79%), Germany (78% ) and France (74%). The United States is in seventh place, with 72% of the vote, just below India, with 73%. Russia, one of the top three allies in last year's survey, now ranks ninth, rated as an ally by 63% of those surveyed, behind Pakistan (69%).
At the same time, they claim that the United States continues to wield the greatest influence in the Arab world. However, most would like to see the US less involved in Middle East affairs, with nearly two-thirds saying they "very much or somewhat support" US withdrawal from the region.
Views on "model nations"
For the twelfth year in a row since young Arabs were asked to name the countries they considered "model nations", they have stated that the UAE is the country they would most like to live in and the one they would most like their own to emulate.
Nearly one in four young Arabs (24%) named the UAE as the country they would most like to live in, followed by the United States (19%), Canada (19%), Qatar (14%) and the United Kingdom ( 13%). The UAE was also named for the 12th consecutive year the country most young Arabs want their own to emulate. The UAE was identified by 22% of young Arabs of both sexes, ahead of the United States (19%), Canada (16%), Qatar (15%) and Saudi Arabia and the United Kingdom in fifth place (11% ).
Sunil John, Chairman of MENA, BCW and founder of ASDA'A BCW, who has led the survey for the past 15 years, explained: "ASDA'A BCW's annual survey of Arab youth has proven to be an indispensable resource for Global decision-makers in government and business seeking a clearer understanding of a region that is increasingly influential in world affairs but remains an enigma to many, once again the study sheds new light on the changing geopolitical landscape of the Arab world".
In the coming weeks, ASDA'A BCW will publish reflections on the other five topics covered in the study: My Politics, My Livelihood, My Identity, My Aspirations, and My Lifestyle. To learn more about the results, visit arabyouthsurvey.com
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