US Dollar Outlook: The Continuing Battle for Yield Control

US Dollar Outlook: The Continuing Battle for Yield Control

Battle involving the bond vigilantes along with the Fed continues.


The most recent FOMC meeting gave Fed seat Jerome Powell the stage to reiterate the fundamental banks continuing support for the market, despite nascent signs of economic expansion and a pickup in inflation. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates at their present level through 2023, or until unemployment steadies below 5 percent. The bond market nevertheless is pushing back in the Fed, forcing upward longer-dated US Treasury yields -- raising the government's borrowing costs -- as those'bond vigilantes' market their bonds fears that inflation increases earlier than expected as the market expands sharply.

The US dollar can be getting an uplift Friday, following the Federal Reserve failed to expand the comfort of this supplementary leverage ratio (SLR). This judgment meant that banks could exclude their US Treasuries and residue out of their book requirements, easing the strain on banks if the pandemic struck and client deposits rose. The fear is that with this judgment currently end, that banks might currently be additional vendors of US Treasuries, forcing the returns even greater.

The US dollar basket (DXY) continues its latest reverse high and is currently breaking over the 200-day easy moving average. A conclusive fracture and open this index could induce DXY back to above the March 9 high in 92.53, leaving the buck in its greatest level since late-November. Above below, two fold highs in 94.31 and 94.79 come in to perspective.

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