Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $1860 after US intelligence report Russia may invade Ukraine next week

The yellow metal saw its price rise above $1,860 due to geopolitical developments.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD rises above $1860 after US intelligence report Russia may invade Ukraine next week
  • XAU/USD could break a nine-month-old trendline of $1,850-60 downslope.

The weekend is approaching on a positive note for gold (XAU/USD), which has risen 2.36% in the past week. Gold (XAU/USD) is starting the weekend on a positive note, up 2.36% in the week to press time.

A PBS NewsHour reporter reported that the US believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has made a decision to invade Ukraine. He had already sent those plans to Russia. Two officials from the Biden administration said that they expected the invasion to start as soon as next week.

The reporter stated that US defense officials anticipated a "horrific and bloody campaign" that would include two days of bombardment, electronic warfare, and invasion with the potential goal of regime change. According to reports, the North Atlantic Council was briefed today on the new information.

This aside, the financial markets mood is bleak. US equities trades in the red while the greenback, which is underpinned by US Treasury yields, rises to 95.85 at 0.28%.

Friday's US economic docket came in light during the North American session. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index February was 61.7. This is lower than the 67.5 estimate and trails the January 67.2 figure. Consumers expect inflation to be at 3.1% and 5.0% for the next 5 years.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, James Bullard (St. Louis Fed) stated that he supports 1% rate increases to Federal Funds Rates (FFRs) by July 1. He said that he doesn't want to "prejudice" the March meeting by announcing a 50-bps increase.

XAU/USD Forecast: Technical outlook

Although the USD is neutrally biased, geopolitical concerns sent yellow-metal surge towards a nine month-old trendline along the downslope, at around $1850-60. This, if it breaks, would expose the November 16th 2021 high of $1,877. Then, the June 1st 2021 daily high of $1,916.61.


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