Boulder County's fire danger was boosted by winds, high temps

The dueling wildfires that broke out in Boulder County on Friday morning, fueled by some wind gusts approaching triple digits, are evidence of a changing climate and Colorado's trend toward a 12-month fire season, according to an expert who has studied the...

Boulder County's fire danger was boosted by winds, high temps

The dueling wildfires that broke out in Boulder County on Friday morning, fueled by some wind gusts approaching triple digits, are evidence of a changing climate and Colorado's trend toward a 12-month fire season, according to an expert who has studied the subject for more than 30 years.

Three structures were destroyed on one property by the Rogers Fire west of Longmont, more than 150 homes were evacuated due to a second fire along Wagonwheel Gap Road and an apparent "microburst" of intense wind took down three large trees in just three blocks of Forest Avenue in north Boulder.

It all unfolded on a day that Boulder set a new record high, 76, for the date. The previous Feb. 10 high was 72, set in 1972.

Thomas Veblen, a professor in the Department of Geography at the University of Colorado, said he was at Walker Ranch west of Boulder on Friday morning, where he said gusts were at least in the neighborhood of 60 mph mid-morning. The accompanying fires elsewhere in the county did not surprise him.

"This is certainly consistent with what we expect, with the increase in the fire season," said Veblen, who has been studying forest ecology and fire history in Colorado since 1981.

"Basically, people are talking about the fire season being year-round because of warming temperatures," Veblen said. "We have near-record warm temperatures, low humidity and very strong winds and under continued warming, which we expect to continue, of course this is likely to become more common."

'Sounded like an explosion'

The highest wind gust recorded by the National Weather Service in Boulder County on Friday was 93 mph 3 miles east of Gold Hill at 12:29 p.m., according to meteorologist Kyle Fredin.

Other lusty gusts included 90 mph at 11:29 a.m. on Sugarloaf Mountain, 84 mph in Nederland at 1:28 a.m., 74 mph at the Vance Brand Municipal Airport in Longmont at 8:33 a.m. and 70 mph at the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Mesa lab at 8:05 a.m., according to meteorologist Natalie Gusack.

Three large trees in one short block of Forest Avenue between 10th and Eighth streets were taken down early Friday morning in what one neighborhood resident described as a "microburst" of wind.

Neighborhood resident Rick Wills introduced politics into his description of what took place there.

"At about 8 a.m. this morning a 70-mph-wind gust kicked up in our neighborhood," Wills wrote in an email. "As the wind shook the house, I heard what sounded like an explosion outside. Between the biblical wind and sounds of destruction, my first thought was 'Great, someone sent (President) Trump the wrong tweet and he reached for the red button.'

"When I went outside I realized it was just a 75' pine from our neighbors' lawn that had fallen, not the end of days."

That tree was on the property of Dean Garyet, in the 800 block of Forest Ave., and narrowly missed landing atop the house next door owned by Melanie and C.J. Gauss, who were not home at the time.

On Friday afternoon, their "nanny-slash-assistant," Jackie Stone, was at the Gauss residence, sizing things up on the couple's behalf.

"It's a miracle" that their home was spared in the tree's toppling, instead taking out one 20-foot section of their front fence, she said. "They're lucky, for sure. It's a nuisance, but, that's why people have homeowner's insurance."

Forest Avenue was blocked to traffic at 10th Street for much of the day for the neighborhood clean-up effort, but contractors expected their work to be done and the road to be reopened before the afternoon was over.

Boulder public works spokesman Ben Irwin said Forest Avenue was "by far" the hardest hit by wind damage, but that there were also calls concerning wind damage in Mapleton Hill, University Hill and northeast Boulder.

Moisture in forecast

Nezette Rydell, meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service in Boulder, said weather conditions at the time of the fires' outbreak Friday were "dry, but not as dry as it could be."

But the high winds, she said, served to further dry out area grasslands and other fuels, making conditions conducive to any fire spreading quickly.

The key to combustibility, Veblen said, was the generally warmer temperatures the Front Range has been experiencing.

"That is the big story overall," Veblen said. "We expect sort of our usual pattern variability in precipitation. But when you overlay on top of that pattern the warmer temperatures, that equates to increased fire probability."

Saturday should be quieter in Boulder County in that respect, with temperatures moderating to a high of 55, with a 20 percent chance of precipitation.

However, on his weather blog, meteorologist Matt Kelsch said the arrival of a cold front in the afternoon could be accompanied by brief, gusty north and northeast winds.

That should usher in some moisture, with the chance for precipitation jumping to 60 percent Saturday night, and an inch or so of snow possible by Sunday morning.

Charlie Brennan: 303-473-1327, brennanc@dailycamera.com or twitter.com/chasbrennan

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