Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD at Rise of RBA Taper, Chinese Regulations

The Australian dollar spent the week range bound. This is not surprising given the absence of data and lack of news flow.

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD at Rise of RBA Taper, Chinese Regulations

The market was not motivated by some consumer and business confidence data, and will instead be focused on the important data for next week. On Tuesday, the minutes of the RBA meeting will be published. The employment numbers will follow on Thursday. Recent remarks by the RBA were somewhat hawkish. The market will be looking at the minutes to confirm their bias. This is especially important given the increasing number of Delta variant coronavirus cases in New South Wales. RBA Assistant Governor Kent will speak on Friday to provide additional insight into the central bank's stance.

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR & GOLD RISK DISPARITY TO S&P500

The Australian Dollar is often viewed as a gauge of risk assets. With central banks around the world trying to reduce excessively loose policy, the Australian Dollar could be reintroduced to downside pressure after it retreated from its February high. Other risk assets are mixed. Many equity indices hit new highs this week. This contrasts with many commodity markets, which are still well below their previous highs. Below is a chart that shows the S&P 500's outperformance against the AUD, and gold.

AUD/USD, GOLD VERSUS S&P500 PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATED

Looking at the AUD against this risk disparity suggests that we have a strong US Dollar driving commodity and currency markets and from a fundamental perspective, this makes sense, as the Fed are perceived to be behind other central banks in terms of the unwinding of stimulus that is keeping the US economy at elevated levels. The FOMC meeting minutes will be released mid-week and again, the market will be sifting through the minutes for an indication of the timing of tapering.

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