SEVILLA, 22 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The price of a barrel of Brent quality crude oil has reached $94.27 this month, a figure that has become its highest annual value and confirms a growth of 31% ($22.39) since last June , in which it reached a price of 71.88 dollars per barrel. According to experts from the energy consulting firm Tempos Energía, the forecasts for winter point to a range of between 85 and 110 dollars.
For the general director of the strategic consulting firm, Antonio Aceituno, this great upward slope, which places Brent futures above 93 dollars per barrel after more than 14 months without doing so, finds its causes in a "complex equation, in "which brings together the different economic situations of the most influential countries in the market, the reduction in OPEC production and the current fall of the euro against the dollar."
In this international panorama, the US economy is showing true resilience," drawing "what could be a relatively soft landing, thus avoiding a significant recession."
This follows factors such as the 0.6 percent increase in retail purchases compared to July, the decrease in job applications by 13,000 units and the six-month high achieved in service sector activity, which sends to the market a powerful signal of the recovery of this player.
"It is the feeling of being in the tightest market in a decade that is appreciating the brent," said Aceituno, who recalled "the importance of the announcement by Russia and Saudi Arabia to cut the supply by 1.3 thousand barrels per day." production until the end of the year" in this regard.
Likewise, "optimism" regarding demand from China has influenced this upward trend, a country that has grown 4.5 percent in August compared to the previous year, accelerating from the 3.7 percent rate observed in July. , data that suggests that the Asian giant "is on the path of recovery."
In this sense, the experts from the energy consulting firm have highlighted that "these events occur when the euro has been falling against the dollar for nine consecutive weeks, thus marking the longest bearish streak since its creation." "This has resulted in Europe's purchase of crude oil becoming increasingly less competitive," they stressed.
Taking into account the above, the markets are "literally in the hands of OPEC and it is the responsibility of its highest exponent to decide when it begins to release crude oil, since the cartel points to a shortage of more than three thousand barrels per day for the next quarter , which would potentially be the largest deficit in more than a decade."
This strategy, according to Tempos Energía experts, "would seriously threaten the fragile global economy, causing new inflationary peaks, which would slow down central banks' plans to ease their cycle of interest rate increases."
Regarding the current scenario, the general director of Tempos Energía has concluded that crude oil has been placed "in a comfort zone, oscillating around 90 dollars per barrel as a result of the decision made by the main market player, Saudi Arabia. , which prioritizes price over volume".
Thus, Aceituno has estimated that "the upward momentum has been exhausted for the moment, since prices have already internalized the possible quarterly deficit that is coming."
For this reason, the national energy consultancy has considered that crude oil "needs new signs to continue drawing the upward trend", among them, "a really cold winter, which would make it possible to reach prices around 100 and 110 dollars per barrel." ".
However, faced with a more controlled scenario and taking into account the immediate actions that influential countries can take in this market, the Tempos team has set its forecasts for the price of Brent in the range between 85 and 110 dollars per barrel.