Private consumption will recover at the end of this year and reach pre-pandemic levels
MADRID, 22 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The Savings Bank Foundation (Funcas) foresees a moderation in the household savings rate and estimates that it will return "exactly" to the historical average of 6.7% as a proportion of disposable income next year.
From the Foundation, a rebound was detected during the first part of the year in the savings rate mainly because households have considered it necessary to repay loans early to, in some way, cushion the impact of the rise in the Euribor on their financial costs. However, the director of Economics and Statistics at Funcas, Raymond Torres, believes that this trend "is not going to continue."
Funcas' projections indicate that the household savings rate, measured according to disposable income, will return exactly to the historical average of 6.7% next year, compared to the 8.2% expected for 2023 or the 7th, 6% registered in 2022.
Thus, it would be exactly at the same average rate recorded between 2014 and 2019 (6.7%), which is below that recorded during the years of the financial crisis - between 2008 and 2013 - when it reached 8.8. %.
From Funcas, they have detected an acceleration in the growth of household disposable income in nominal terms, which grew by 12.2% year-on-year in the second quarter - after 11% in the first -, the rates being higher of the historical series.
These figures are due, according to Funcas, to the growth in salaries and social benefits - mainly pensions - which more than compensate for the increase in interest payments.
All of this leads to the savings rate currently continuing at very high levels, reaching the highest figure for a second quarter in the entire series in the second quarter - excluding 2009 and the years of the pandemic, 2020 and 2021, characterized due to the phenomenon of 'oversaving'--.
The increase in savings has served to repay loans, Funcas has assured. At the same time, private sector debt continues to reduce, as it has been doing uninterruptedly after the effects of the pandemic ended in the first quarter of 2021.
In fact, in the second quarter, the consolidated debt for non-financial corporations stood at 66.6% and that of households and private non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) at 49.9%. , the figures being the lowest in the last twenty years.
Regarding household consumption, the Foundation predicts that it will recover at the end of this year, in the last quarter of 2023, and would be at the pre-pandemic level.
Despite this, Funcas has warned that in 2024 there will be less momentum for the normalization of tourism and agreements to recover the purchasing power of salaries, with its corollary in terms of household disposable income and private consumption. Thus, it is expected that the private consumption deflator will register a slight deceleration, from 3.9% this year to 3.6% in 2024