They only expect slight drops in prices in the less dynamic markets
MADRID, 30 Nov. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The Idealista real estate portal has indicated that the price of housing in Spain has increased by 7% in the last year and that of rent, by 9.2%, a trend that will continue throughout next year.
In its analysis of the real estate market in 2023 and forecasts for 2024, Idealista points out that the drop in housing prices announced this year has not occurred because the new Housing Law "has sunk supply", so Prices have continued to rise "strongly."
Looking ahead to 2024, he has assured that price tensions will continue to increase in 2024 in the most dynamic markets, while in the rest it is possible that there will be stabilization or slight falls.
Regarding prices in the rental market, Idealista has highlighted the reduction in housing supply, which has fallen by 12% in the same time and continues to fall sharply in the main markets, reaching a reduction of 26% in Madrid, 23% in Malaga and 12% in Barcelona, due to the impact of the Housing Law.
Likewise, the new regulation has caused seasonal rentals to appear very strongly during the second half of the year, which is becoming the favorite option of many owners who decided to take their homes off the market and who have returned them with this temporary option that is not under the umbrella of the new law.
"At the end of the third quarter, this type of rentals already represented 10% of the entire supply in Spain and experienced a growth of 40% in the last year and everything indicates that these percentages will grow in the last quarter of the year and that the weight of seasonal rentals will continue to increase in the large markets", they have pointed out in this regard.
Regarding sales, Idealista expects that the year will close below 600,000 homes sold, which will mean a "very significant" decrease in operations of between 8% and 10%.
For 2024, a "continuous" outlook is expected, given that there is no forecast of a sudden appearance of large pockets of housing in the areas with the most demand.
"Even so, it is possible that during the next year part of the demand that had been withdrawn in expectation of a significant drop in prices that has not occurred will be activated, which could increase tension in the market and push prices up. upwards with greater energy," he warned.
On the other hand, regarding the number of mortgages, Idealista projects a drop of 25% year-on-year at the end of the year, with prices that have continued to rise in price until reaching levels not seen since 2016.
By 2024, Idealista hopes that this "appetite" will not diminish. "We will see if the rate trend even allows for some joy with price decreases or if, on the contrary, the economic situation forces banks to be more restrictive in their lending policy," he added.
Regarding the 12-month Euribor, the real estate portal does not see a drop in the short and medium term and assures that "even" there may be a new increase in the first part of the year.
"In recent weeks the index has experienced a pause in its increases and even some slight falls, but this does not necessarily mean that we are facing a change in trend," he assured.
Thus, in the best of cases they project a relaxation during the second part of the year, while, in the event that a decrease occurs, they believe that it will be minimal and will not fall below 3%.