MADRID, 12 Sep. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) predicts that growth in global oil demand for 2023 will remain unchanged at 2.4 million barrels per day, as revealed in its monthly oil bulletin.
OPEC explains that all upward revisions are based on data received for China, the United States and OECD Europe, while other Asian countries are revised downwards.
In the OECD region, oil demand in 2023 is expected to increase by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d), while in non-OECD countries it is expected to grow by about 2.3 mb/d. By 2024, global oil demand is expected to increase by 2.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month's assessment.
Likewise, it anticipates that in the OECD demand will rise by around 0.3 mb/d, with the American countries of this organization being those that contribute to the greatest increase. Non-OECD countries will drive growth with an increase of about 2.0 mb/d, with China, India, the Middle East and other Asian countries contributing the most.
The non-OPEC liquid product supply growth forecast is revised slightly upward to 1.6 mb/d in 2023. The main drivers of liquid supply growth for 2023 are the United States, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan , Guyana and China.
By 2024, non-OPEC production of these elements is expected to increase by 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month's assessment. The main drivers of liquid supply growth next year will be the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan. The largest declines are expected in Mexico and Malaysia.
OPEC LNG and unconventional liquids are expected to increase by about 50 thousand barrels (tb/d) in 2023, to an average of 5.44 mb/d, and by another 65 tb/d, to 5 .51 mb/d in 2024. OPEC-13 crude oil production increased in August by 113 tb/d to an average of 27.45 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.
In August, the OPEC reference basket increased by 6.27 dollars (5.85 euros), 7.7% more month-on-month, to an average of 87.33 dollars (81.50 euros) per barrel.
Broken down by components, Brent rose by 4.94 dollars (4.61 euros), 6.2% more, to stand at 85.10 dollars (79.42 euros) per barrel on average. For its part, West Texas rose 7%, which represented an increase of 5.29 dollars (4.94 euros), to 81.32 dollars (75.89 euros) per barrel. The Oman DME contract rose $5.30 (4.95 euros) or 6.5%, reaching $86.46 (80.69 euros) per barrel.
The one-month Brent/West Texas differential narrowed in August to $0.35 (0.33 euros) to stand at $3.78 (3.53 euros) per barrel. Brent, West Texas and Oman futures forward curves continued to "accelerate further" amid improving prospects for oil market fundamentals. At the same time, hedge funds and other fund managers trimmed their total net long positions in Brent and West Texas.