MADRID, 26 Dic. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The Spanish economy will end the year 2023 in fifteenth place in the classification of the World Economic League prepared by the Center for Economic and Business Research (Cebr), although during the projection horizon, which reaches until 2038, it will end up giving up one place to Indonesia's push to finish in 16th position.
"Cebr forecasts that the annual GDP growth rate in Spain will slow to an average of 1.6% over the next five years, and will subsequently decline to 1.5% annually between 2029 and 2038. As a result, Spain will drop one place in the World Economic League table for the next 15 years, from 15th place in 2023 to 16th in 2038", highlight the authors of the ranking.
In this way, Spain would remain the second largest Spanish-speaking economy in the world, behind Mexico, which occupies twelfth position in the table in 2023 and is expected to rise to 11th place next year, although throughout the year foreseen horizon will lose weight to finish in 2038 in 15th place, just ahead of Spain.
Spain, which before the global financial crisis occupied eighth position in the World Economic League, has been gradually losing weight, in line with European economies, falling to tenth position in 2008 and to thirteenth in 2018.
At a global level, Cebr once again delays the expected 'overtake' of China from the United States as the largest world economy, which it now predicts will happen in 2037, while by 2038 it predicts that the third largest economy in the world will be India, which in 2023 occupies fifth position.
In this way, Germany will give up its third place in 2023 to fall to fifth place at the end of the projected horizon, while Japan will manage to defend its current fourth position, as well as the United Kingdom and France will retain their positions as the sixth and seventh world economies, respectively.
On the other hand, Brazil will gain a position over these 15 years and will end up as the eighth world economy in 2038, ahead of South Korea, which will advance four positions during the period analyzed, as well as Canada, which will manage to maintain its current tenth position.
"One of the factors driving the change in ranking positions this year is likely to be the differential pace in the implementation of Net Zero policies," defends Douglas McWilliams, vice president of Cebr.
"The EU is leading the way on this. By contrast, Asian economies are likely to move less quickly in the same direction, at a pace at which the economic costs are lower, and countries such as India, Korea, Indonesia , Bangladesh, Vietnam and the Philippines rise considerably in the rankings," he adds.
In this sense, Cebr's projections for within 15 years contemplate that less than a fifth (19.2%) of world GDP in dollars will correspond to Europe, compared to the 23.6% expected in 2023 and 33.5% from 15 years ago.
In contrast, the outlook for East Asian economies is almost exactly the opposite, with the share of these economies expected to increase from 20.8% to 33.9% over this 30-year horizon.