at midnight, Central European time, will leave the United Kingdom, the EU. Thus, the 31 is. January 2020 and a historic Moment. Because it is not only the first Time that a member country's exit from the EU, but it is also not any, but the second largest economy in Europe. About Dr. Martin Lück

Martin Lück the newly created Position of Chief Investment Strategist for Germany, Austria and Eastern Europe at BlackRock holds. In this role, he is responsible for macroeconomic Research and the Investment assessments in the Region. As a Central point of contact for customers providing financial advisors, private banks and institutional investors with information on economic and market issues.

For Germany the Brexit unpleasant, both economically and politically. The United Kingdom is one of the most important export markets for German companies, and thus economically relevant. More important, however, Britain, Germany has so far been, in political terms. Because the United Kingdom, which has appeared in EU negotiations, since the accession in 1973 as a bulkier Partner, formed jointly with Germany and other Northern European-influenced countries, the counter-weight to the Europeans, and France.

This Balance device now to the wrong location. Although a closer coordination of the Northern countries under the Slogan "the Hanse 2.0 is an Initiative by the Dutch Finance Minister already", whose members would come without a Germany to more than 90 per cent of the UK's GDP, but weight, meaning, and – Yes, certainly – chutzpah British negotiator will lack in the future. Just representatives of the Federal government should not be in the future, feel that in the battle against Brussels bureaucracy, the savvy British on their side are.

For German companies, there is no reason to panic

While the political vacuum that the British left with the Brexit, relatively quickly likely to emerge, can German companies that are directly or indirectly affected by the Brexit, the 31. January let it pass, without lapsing into panic. Because on 1. February changes due to the transition period, first of all, nothing at all. All the rules of the internal market remain in force, that is, besides the freedom of goods and services, capital and people, freedom. The United Kingdom will continue to, although formally not a member of the EU, all the EU-rules to implement them accordingly.

The bad news is that this transition period shall apply only until the end of the year. Although the resignation agreement provides for a renewal option of up to two years, this would have to 1 to. July be submitted, and is already now excluded by law from the Johnson administration. With other words: For the negotiation of a free trade agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom remain just eleven months, including the adoption and ratification in the member countries.

in view of the fact that CETA, the free trade agreement between the EU and Canada, has more than 10 years, up to the final adoption of the trade deal between the South American Mercosur and the EU even more than 15 years, the post-Brexit-time plan to be more ambitious. British negotiators argue that the TRANS-Atlantic agreement are not to scale, because the EU and the British side finally, for decades well. In this respect, a Deal of the year is very well feasible. Realistically, however, it appears that, initially, only a hull agreement shall be brought in the way of that massive interference with the movement of goods and people after 1. January 2021 is prevented, and pushed everything Further to the longer Bank.

investments in pound Sterling might be under pressure

be advised This has a number of implications. Firstly, The uncertainty, all the fear of a hard Brexit, is by no means off the table. Investments in pounds Sterling, such as British files or bonds, which had recovered in the Wake of Johnson's election victory, and the adoption of the withdrawal agreement solid in the second half of the year once again under pressure. Even after the expiry of the transitional period, the uncertainty is likely to continue.

As the EU negotiator, a great interest in the service of freedom, especially with regard to financial services, first of all, from a hastily cobbled together hull agreement to stay out of this, is likely to prevail in relation to this sector, reluctance, Mr. May include additional financial companies to follow the example of Japanese and U.S. banks, which have already relocated staff, in some cases even their European headquarters from London to the continent, to an imminent year-long stalemate and to prevent.

The result could be that the hardly noticeable loss of importance of the City of London, by the British government to stop with the Seal of the Brexit all hopes, maybe even reverse, as a persistent and permanent turns out to be in many places, arrived. Because if the EU continues to hold its ranks so closed as in the past, it is likely to have the pledge of the freedom to provide services in the financial area just for a high price buy. This speaks to continued uncertainty.

Brexit has to hurt, otherwise he provoked imitators

it could, Thirdly, be finally, the hope for a comprehensive and swift "agreement among friends" as the Basis of the future relations between the EU and the United Kingdom as naive. The EU, whose Brexit-negotiators have delivered to the gnarled Frenchman Michel Barnier a fantastic job our not the slightest interest to the British on the cheap. This is more than rational, succeed in bringing the British to a successful, perhaps even profitable detachment from the EU, this could serve other fickle candidate as a blueprint. Even if the EU is accused of the British side, again and again, you act offended as a deserted wife, is this attitude exactly right. The Brexit has to hurt, otherwise, he provokes perhaps copycat. All this speaks for an early end to the uncertainty.

the Bottom line is the historical date of December 31. January 2020 so it is only just that: the duty of the guilty, the entry in the history book. The mean, possibly, their data were the 23. In January 2013, the then-British Prime Minister David Cameron of the population in the event of his re-election, an EU-promised Referendum, and of course the 23. June 2016, the by the lies of Farage, Johnson & co. indoctrinated British people decided by a narrow majority against the EU. Looking ahead, we should adjust ourselves mainly to the fact that Friday night is the Brexit by no means is done. With the hot Phase of the transitional period, the tug of war starts. Not a single Minister there: the Bundestag in Not a single Minister breaks down after a rage-speech session, FOCUS Online/Wochit as: Bundestag interrupts to anger-speech session

Date Of Update: 31 January 2020, 16:00