A NY1 headline perfectly captured Mayor Bill de Blasio's big annual address last week. "Returning to 2013 Campaign Theme Ahead of This Year's Election, Mayor Decries 'Affordability Crisis' in State of the City Speech," it said.
That is not the speech I would have given, nor my take on the state of the city. Here is what de Blasio could have emphasized.
- The economy is doing great. Readers know there is much data to prove this point. Here are two figures—both of them records: The city has added almost 700,000 jobs since the end of the recession, including 300,000 in de Blasio's first three years as mayor. And despite the stronger dollar, more than 60 million tourists arrived last year, boosting the city's second most important industry (finance is first).
- Crime is as low as it has been in a long time. Last year the city recorded 335 murders, only two more than the modern-record low from de Blasio's first year as mayor, 2014. Shootings fell below 1,000—the fewest since the NYPD began counting them in 1993 (when there were more than 5,200). Overall, major crimes declined by about 4%. By comparison, 762 people were killed in Chicago, a city with about a third of New York's population—the Windy City's highest total in two decades.
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- Public education is improving some. The city's graduation rate topped 70% for the first time. Although the standards have changed somewhat, there is little doubt city schools are better than they were. The mayor won't want to talk about it, but the charter school movement has now been around long enough that its students are entering higher grades, with test scores that certainly predict high graduation rates and college success as well.
- The building boom signals confidence in the future. Construction activity last year likely topped $40 billion for the first time ever, the New York Building Congress says, and should continue at that pace for two more years. It's not just that building is fueling the economy (and making inconvenienced New Yorkers a touch sour); it is a clear sign that developers and the people who lend them money are confident about the city.
- New Yorkers are, on the whole, satisfied. The mayor's speech seemed designed to appeal to dissatisfied voters, as if Donald Trump voters were numerous here. In the most recent Quinnipiac poll, 55% of voters said the city's quality of life is good. A whopping 67% said they want to continue living here.
If I were de Blasio, I would be talking about the things I have accomplished: instituting universal prekindergarten, expanding afterschool programs, helping enact a $15 minimum wage, extending living-wage requirements to any firm with a city contract, requiring paid sick leave and launching the most ambitious affordable-housing plan of any mayor. I'd also be using my bully pulpit to make New Yorkers feel better about their city and to propose a few realistic programs.
Without a strong challenger, however—and one has yet to step forward—the mayor's pessimistic rhetoric isn't likely to affect his re-election chances.
A NY1 headline perfectly captured Mayor Bill de Blasio's big annual address last week. "Returning to 2013 Campaign Theme Ahead of This Year's Election, Mayor Decries 'Affordability Crisis' in State of the City Speech," it said.
That is not the speech I would have given, nor my take on the state of the city. Here is what de Blasio could have emphasized.
If I were de Blasio, I would be talking about the things I have accomplished: instituting universal prekindergarten, expanding afterschool programs, helping enact a $15 minimum wage, extending living-wage requirements to any firm with a city contract, requiring paid sick leave and launching the most ambitious affordable-housing plan of any mayor. I'd also be using my bully pulpit to make New Yorkers feel better about their city and to propose a few realistic programs.
Without a strong challenger, however—and one has yet to step forward—the mayor's pessimistic rhetoric isn't likely to affect his re-election chances.
A version of this article appears in the February 20, 2017, print issue of Crain's New York Business.
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