The greenback remains firm in a positive market environment
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, but peace talks have stalled.
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Although downward-biased, the EUR/USD trades at 1.0960. There are still upside risks.
On Thursday, the US session of the shared currency saw a swing due to a positive market mood. However, broad US dollar strength helps to keep the EUR/USD pairing within the 1.0960-1.1000 range. The EUR/USD trades at 1.1000 as of press time.
The US Dollar is resilient in a risky market
The New York session saw risk appetite improve, as evidenced by US equities rising in contrast to European bourses which fluctuated. The greenback has been supported all day, as indicated by the US Dollar Index, up 0.16% at 98.766, supported by higher US Treasury yields with the 10-year benchmark note yield at 2.348%.
Geopolitical issues: Russia-Ukraine hostilities continue, and peace talks are stalled. The NATO summit of two days has yet to provide EUR/USD tradable news. It is worth noting that the US President Joe Biden reportedly supported NATO troops being increased on the east front. Biden and other NATO members also assess the risk of Russia launching a chemical, biological or nuclear attack. Biden also called for Russia's expulsion from the G-20.
Other than this, Fed speakers continue to be headline-grabbing. Charles Evans, Chicago Fed President, said that he was comfortable with 25 bps increases in the Federal Funds rate but is open to 50 bps increases should they be required. Neil Kaskari, Minnesota Fed President, stated earlier that the 10-year Treasury yields are low and that there is a risk of rate hikes being too aggressive.
Friday's Eurozone economic docket will reveal March's IFO Business, Current Condition, and Expectations for Germany. The headlines would be dominated by Pending Home Sales for February and the Universite of Michigan Consumer Expectations March.
EUR/USD Price Outlook: Technical outlook
The EUR/USD pair is still heavily biased downward. The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair is still heavily biased downward. However, in the last two days of EUR/USD price action the pair failed to break below Tuesday's daily low of 1.0960. This leaves the EUR/USD open for an upward movement.
In this scenario, the EUR/USD would reach 1.1043. The breach of this would expose Pitchfork’s parallel-line around the top and center ones at 1.1080. This is followed by 1.1100. The EUR/USD path would be the least resistance (the first support) if the other side is broken at 1.0960. A decisive break would expose 1.0901 March 11 low and then the 1.0806 YTD low.
