gold has not really rating at the moment. The precious metal is changing to its lowest level since the beginning of the year, around 1280 dollars per ounce. On these last three months, it shows a loss of nearly 4%. "The gold is a little behind. Tensions eased, and he reacts to this decrease," explains Jean-François Faure, president of AuCoffre.com, online platform specialized in the buying and selling of the yellow metal.
gold is considered a safe haven, which provides no return, unlike a share or a bond. It tends to appreciate when markets are uncertain and to fall when risk appetite prevails. It is this scenario that has been taking place since the past few weeks. In April, "the risky assets at the global level have continued to shine with a new record increase for the S&P500 index (...) The engine of this favourable trend in risk has been the improvement of the global growth, the United States still leading the race, and the decline of geopolitical risks", said in a note Michael Albrecht, strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. "Employment, wages, growth...there has been some good news on the american side. The areas of shadow that could appear, such as the conflict with China and the Brexit, was a little remote," says Jean-François Faure.
In parallel, the gold market is penalized by the appreciation of the us dollar. The latter is still mounted on last Wednesday when the Fed chairman Jerome Powell, has indicated that it was not justified to reduce the interest rate for the time being. Yet any rise in the greenback makes the purchase of the yellow metal more expensive for buyers using other currencies.Shot of cold on the markets
In this context, the latest figures published by the world gold Council have not been sufficient to give a boost to the gold. These are however, reported an increase of 7% of world gold demand in the first quarter to 1053,3 tons. The request of the central banks surged by 68% to $ 145.5 tons, a level not seen since 2013.
"Now, it will be necessary to monitor the psychological level of 1280 dollars per ounce. If the latter is pressed down, the gold could continue its downward trend. Any delay which will help to lower the pressure on the markets will drive down the gold," explains the specialist Aucoffre. Conversely, any escalation of tension could play in favour of the precious metal. The image of the cold cast over the markets by Donald Trump, who has announced his intention to overtax chinese products. Side Europe, "the next elections to the european Parliament and the possibility that the populist parties of the right are moving more in the region are a concern imminent," adds the world gold Council, which also points the finger at the continuing uncertainty around the Brexit. "In the medium term, it will also monitor the u.s. presidential election of 2020. They may be able to change that", warns Jean-François Faure.Updated Date: 08 May 2019, 00:00