The British are worried about. More than ever, they are in uncertainty, on the conditions under which the United Kingdom will leave the european Union. And appropriate-they are saying that it is better to prevent than to cure. Despite a situation that weighs heavily on the course of the book, and, in turn, on the cost of imports, the British are buying more and more products outside of their borders. Imports rose 6.8% in the first quarter of 2019 compared to the previous quarter, according to a study published on Monday by Euler Hermes.
"The companies located in the United Kingdom are worried. They are, therefore, forced to increase their inventories of caution, and import a maximum of finished products or intermediaries," said Ana Boata, economist in charge of Europe in the credit insurer.
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The providers want to have several months of stock in advance to supply to the stores is not affected and that consumers do not face shortages. The greatest fear concerns the drugs, because rare are those products in the United Kingdom.
An opportunity to compensate slightly the lack of income generated in recent years by the Brexit
For the time being, the French companies benefit from the situation of uncertainty, which dominates. Early this year, the imports of the United Kingdom from france have increased by 15 %. This is the equivalent of 1.3 billion euros of products. Good news for French exporters, "who have the opportunity to compensate slightly the lack of income generated in recent years by the Brexit (estimated at 6 billion euros between 2015 and 2019)", the study notes Euler Hermes.
In reality, it's been a few months that this trend is installed. According to the Customs figures, French exports were in decline in all the countries of the european Union in the third quarter of 2018, with the exception of those from the United Kingdom. In the first quarter, the acceleration in exports in Europe is due to the force of the United Kingdom "due to the sales of motor vehicles, but also of the flow of exceptional jewelry."
a side Effect, the prospect of Brexit hard also prompted champagne houses in france to inflate their stocks in the United Kingdom. More than ten million bottles were stored on british soil, has recently stated to the AFP Jean-Marie Barillère, president of the Union of champagne houses (UMC).
Euler Hermes believes that the dynamics of import "should continue when the uncertainty will be at its highest", just before the official date of release scheduled for 31 October. Still, the conclusion of the case could cost much more expensive for european companies, including French. Nothing that for the latter, Euler Hermes estimates the shortfall of 3 billion euros per year in case of leaving without agreement, so without free trade agreement, a scenario that is increasingly the rope.
The "Leave" takes you into the investment.
the uncertainty related to The Brexit penalizes the activity, if inquiètela british Chamber of commerce (BCC). "Companies are focusing on contingency plans, such as the accumulation of stocks", instead investing in projects that "carriers in the long term," says Adam Marshall, its director-general. Investments uk will by 2019 their worst decline in ten years, with a decrease of 1.3 %, which provides for the association that brings together tens of thousands of businesses. And, in 2020, the growth will be limited to 0.4 %.
"The dead end without end of the Brexit, the high costs of business in Britain and the reduction of excess inventories will weigh on investments," table of the BCC, who revised Monday its outlook for the economy. In 2019, it anticipates a slight spike compared to its original expectations with a growth of 1.3% in Great Britain. But it no longer expects only 1% growth in 2020 (instead of 1.3 %) and 1.2 % (was 1.4 %) by 2021.
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United Kingdom : that to succeed Theresa May ? - Look on Figaro LiveUpdated Date: 19 June 2019, 00:00