The sector could begin to show a new recovery in 2024 with moderate increases in demand, supply and prices
MADRID, 14 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) -
BBVA Research forecasts that housing transactions will fall by around 30% in 2023, given the lower economic growth, both national and foreign, the rise in interest rates and the reduction in savings accumulated during the pandemic.
Although the adjustment will be important --mainly in used housing--, it is expected that sales will be somewhat above 500,000, a level similar to the annual average between 2015-2019, according to the 'Real Estate Observatory' of the first quarter of this year, published by BBVA Research this Friday.
The report warns that relatively high uncertainty, a higher-than-expected rise in interest rates and the maintenance of inflation at high rates will continue to negatively affect household income, which is gradually draining accumulated savings.
As a consequence, the demand for housing will fall in the coming quarters, the reduction in the segment of second homes and demand from foreigners being particularly significant, influenced by the slowdown in growth in the main European countries.
For their part, BBVA Research experts have anticipated that the number of new home visas could be reduced by around 9% in 2023. Among the factors that will limit the progress of the offer are the increase in the cost of financing, the increase in wages, the lack of qualified labor, the still high price of some inputs, the deterioration in demand expectations, as well as regulatory uncertainty. In any case, the shortage of new housing should make the impact limited.
For its part, the price is expected to remain practically constant in 2023 (-0.2%), although in real terms the correction would be 3.9%. The lack of demand will have a negative impact on the evolution of housing prices. However, high inflation and the relative scarcity of supply will partly offset this negative impact.
The sector could begin to show a new recovery in 2024 with moderate increases in demand, supply and prices, after the adjustment of this year and the recovery of the economy, in a context of reduced supply. Thus, house prices are expected to grow around 2.5%, sales around 5% and visas around 6%.
All this with the permission of the main risks that threaten the sector: additional monetary tightening as a result of high inflation, a shortage of qualified labor and developable land, as well as an increase in uncertainty regarding economic policy.
