The Bank of Spain or the IMF foresee growth in 2023 of between 1.5% and 1.6%, compared to the 2.1% maintained so far by the Executive

MADRID, 23 Abr. (EUROPA PRESS) -

The Government will send to Brussels this coming week the 2023-2026 Stability Program that will include the medium-term fiscal scenario and the update of the macroeconomic picture, in a context of high international uncertainty due to the impact of the war in Ukraine and the recent financial turmoil .

The Stability Program must be sent to Brussels before Sunday, April 30, so the Executive must have both the plan and the new macroeconomic forecasts ready this coming week.

These types of programs are sent to the Council of Ministers of the European Union and the European Commission together with the national reform program of Spain, for which the Government has already brought together the social dialogue table.

The referral is made in compliance with European obligations: every year, in the month of April, all the Member States of the European Union have to present their National Reform Programs (PNR) and their Stability Programs to the European Commission. The aim is to coordinate national economic policies and achieve the objectives set for the European Union as a whole.

With the Stability Programme, the Commission and the finance ministers assess whether the Member States are on track to achieve the medium-term budgetary objectives, and to do so they rely on two elements: the analysis of the structural balance and the reference value of spending.

In a year marked by municipal, regional and general elections, Spain must present its Stability Program, although there will be no General State Budget for 2024 due to the proximity of the last national elections at the end of the year, as confirmed by the own Minister of Finance and Public Function, María Jesús Montero, for which reason the 2023 accounts will be extended, although it will be necessary to introduce some updates.

Despite the complex international context, all national and international organizations have revised their growth forecasts for Spain upwards for 2023 and have lowered estimates for inflation. This after a 2022 that positively surprised with a growth of 5.5%, above estimates.

In the national territory, the Bank of Spain raised its growth forecast for the Spanish economy in 2023 to 1.6%, while lowering its estimates for average inflation to 3.7% this year. The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF), for its part, maintained its estimates for GDP in 2023 at 1.6% and cut inflation to 4%.

At the international level, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its estimates by four tenths and the growth prospects for Spain (1.5%) placed them above the rest of the large euro economies.

However, and despite these upward revisions, all national and international organizations have a growth forecast for this year that is more pessimistic than that of the Government, which remains at 2.1%.

The Executive has preferred not to carry out constant reviews on the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and other macroeconomic parameters and has decided to stick to what is established. And it is that it should only launch forecasts twice a year, in April to make the Stability Plan that they send to Brussels and in autumn, to accompany the budget plan.

For this reason, the forecasts of October last year made to update the macroeconomic table that accompanied the General State Budget (PGE) of 2023, which estimated a growth for GDP of 2.1% this year or that the GDP deflator would stand at 3.8%.

Regarding the estimates on the unemployment rate, the Executive foresaw in October that it will be reduced to an average of 12.2% in 2023. Regarding the deficit, the Executive included in the budget plan that it would drop to 3.9% in 2023 and the debt will stand at 112.4% of GDP.

It should be remembered that the European Commission plans to eliminate the suspensions of the fiscal rules that were established to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic at the end of 2023 to establish a transition period prior to the approval of the new framework, which will have paths adapted to each Member State, to which it will once again require that the maximum deficit not exceed 3% by 2026.

For this, the data at the end of the current financial year will be taken into account, while 2024 will be the transition year in which the tax rules will be adjusted until the new tax regulations are approved, which Brussels does not plan to apply before 2026.

Brussels has invited Member States to present their Stability and Convergence programs before the end of April, in accordance with the fiscal adjustment criteria proposed by the Commission. Among them, countries will be required to respect the reference value of 3% of GDP for the deficit and guarantee a path of "credible and continuous" debt reduction, or maintenance of the same at prudent levels in the medium term.

In addition, they should identify how the planned reforms and investments, including within the Recovery and Resilience Plans, can contribute to fiscal sustainability and sustainable and inclusive growth.

In relation to the Recovery Plan, Spain has already received the third tranche of these European funds, endowed with 6,000 million euros, after concluding the required milestones and reforms and receiving the approval of the Twenty-seven.

These 6,000 million thus add to the 31,036 million euros already received, including the advance of 9,036 million and the 22,000 million of the first two tranches of this mechanism created to help Member States recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and which provides for Spain a total amount of more than 77,000 million euros.

The Government is already working on the request for the fourth payment, which will amount to 10,000 million euros, upon completion of the pension reform, which was one of the most important milestones. In addition, Spain has already requested the 84,000 million euros of loans that correspond to the country of these resources.

At the end of the year, the Minister of Economic Affairs, Nadia Calviño presented a first draft of the addendum for the deployment of the loans, on which the Executive continues to work in order to present its final and formal version to Brussels in the coming weeks. .