It’s fun running an insurgent campaign. Running an insurgent government less so.
On the campaign trail, you can say the most outrageous things — as Donald Trump established, you can even tell daily lies — and get lots of attention, and never be pushed too hard on “Just how would you go about doing that [insert dumb idea] in power …?”
You drive the establishment candidates wild with the double standard that they must answer serious policy questions, and you don’t. The crowds grow more adoring with every swipe at the conventional politicians and their “responsible” politics. The price is, of course, no one takes you seriously as a contender. What’s the worst thing that could happen?
You could win.
Then, yikes, reporters haul out those early campaign promises to lock up Wall St. executives, provide nukes to Japan, quit NATO, crush Iran, build a wall, create millions of jobs and balance the budget “Really. How exactly?”
Of course, you don’t have a clue. This is the shambolic Trump administration’s fate. Never expecting to win, until it was too late to stop being outrageous, they are now the victims of the expectations they fanned, and never had any intention of having to meet. Having rejected all the experienced GOP bench as senior staff and agency heads, their collection of amateurs and third-tier players, came stumbling and colliding out of the gate. Gen. Flynn’s three-week career is only the beginning of the pratfalls to come from this crew.
To be fair, expectations management was the Post-election day nightmare of the first Obama administration, and of George W. Bush and his promise of a new “compassionate conservatism,” as oxymoronic as military justice. However, neither was a true populist insurgent and each surrounded themselves with plenty of seasoned heavies from earlier administrations. Each wobbled out of the gate, but soon found their feet.
The “punters” — as the English cruelly dub political true believers foolish enough to wager on the delivery of an insurgent’s promises — however, have real expectations. They believe the foreigners will be thrown out, that good jobs will return, and the elites will be publicly humiliated.
Insurgents have three painful choices at this early moment.
First, you can continue to pretend the revolutionary parallel universe really does exist and plunge into looney schemes, such as banning Muslims or confiscating foreign corporations’ American assets. The Trump team might want to study Venezuala’s success with this approach. The collision with reality comes swift and hard in this scenario, with everything from massive capital flight to violence in the streets.
Or you can choose to pretend the revolution is still coming, but may be somewhat delayed. You will build a wall and kill Obamacare … but not right now. This merely lays a hostage to fortune, with the risk of giving a battered opposition a large cudgel to beat you with for the next two years. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is perhaps, your best guide to this slippery path.
Or you can admit they were wrong, and needed to change direction when you saw the real state of affairs having arrived in office and looked at the books. Everything was so much worse that you had ever suspected, and you will now need to raise taxes, cut spending, etc. This transforms you instantly from celebrated insurgent to just another lying politician, however.
The anger of the “forgotten” — as Trump bizarrely dubs his fans — at the realization that they have been conned can be brutal. Ask any of the above leaders and a dozen others, who have been through the political meat-grinder of being hounded simultaneously by fans as a vendu and by opponents as simply an idiot, what they would have done differently, to avoid that humiliation. The smarter ones will say, “Wish I had promised less …”
But the escape hatch for even the most poorly qualified insurgents is often that voters’ eruptions rarely happen twice in a row. The explosive rage that propels the angry into power, typically abates quickly. Voters return to a more disengaged and lower expectations norm. If Trump can right his floundering ship before the mid-terms, he might well sail through a second term.
Except for this dark and increasingly ominous cloud in the shape of Vladimir Putin. It took more than a year for some Republicans to accept clear evidence of Richard Nixon’s misdeeds … Unless of course we are soon headed into Watergate impeachment hearings, with simultaneous translation of the NSA’s Russian wiretaps.
Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group and a Broadbent Institute leadership fellow, was an NDP strategist for 20 years.
Robin V. Sears, a principal at Earnscliffe Strategy Group and a Broadbent Institute leadership fellow, was an NDP strategist for 20 years.
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