CORVALLIS - Just how unlikely was Oregon State's 68-67 win over Utah on Sunday night? Allow numbers from college basketball analytics site KenPom to explain.
After the Utes went up 63-54 on a Devon Daniels free throw with 3:23 to play, a game forecast chart from the site gave them a roughly 99 percent chance of victory. Of course, OSU (5-23, 1-14 Pac-12) went on a 14-4 run to close the game, spurred by 11 points from sophomore guard Stephen Thompson Jr., including the game-winning shot.
"I think the main thing was remaining confident in our abilities," Thompson said.
In a year of improbable comebacks that included championship wins by the Cleveland Cavaliers, Chicago Cubs and New England Patriots, this one won't stick in the memory bank in the same way. But it will keep Oregon State out of the history books for the wrong reasons.
Further probability numbers from KenPom indicate just how close the Beavers were to becoming the first team since 2008 to go winless in Pac-12 play.
Prior to Sunday, the site gave OSU a nine percent chance to win at Stanford on Wednesday, a four percent at California on Friday and a five percent against No. 6 Oregon back in Gill Coliseum on March 4. The Beavers have yet to win on the road this season and lost to the Ducks by 42 points when they last met in Eugene on Jan. 14.
Had Oregon State gone 0-18 in conference play, it would have become only the second team to do so in the league since it added Arizona and Arizona State to expand to 10 teams in 1978-79.
The only team on that dubious list remains the 2007-08 group from Oregon State. That season, OSU fired coach Jay John 18 games into the season. Interim coach Kevin Mouton lost all 13 contests he coached and the team finished the season by losing a school-record 21 consecutive games.
The Beavers, whose season took a devastating turn when Tres Tinkle broke his right wrist on Nov. 25, were the last remaining Power Five conference team without a win in league play until Sunday. Last season, they reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 26 years.
On the other side of the aisle, Salt Lake Tribune columnist Kurt Kragthorpe wrote the Utah loss was "worst defeat of coach Larry Krystkowiak's six-year tenure." This included Krystkowiak's first season in Salt Lake City, when the Utes went 6-25.
"We lost our composure," Krystkowiak told reporters after the game. "And that's a team that was hungry for a win."
-- Danny Moran
dmoran@oregonian.com
@DannyJMoran
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