Super Bowl cheat sheet: On Brady, Curry, Gaga and Falcons' best chance

The two-week break in between the conference title games and Super Bowl LI has allowed for an in-depth exploration of pretty much every angle associated with the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots: Bill Belichick's shifting wardrobe, Matt Ryan's mysterious...

Super Bowl cheat sheet: On Brady, Curry, Gaga and Falcons' best chance

The two-week break in between the conference title games and Super Bowl LI has allowed for an in-depth exploration of pretty much every angle associated with the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots: Bill Belichick's shifting wardrobe, Matt Ryan's mysterious nickname and a Georgia gas station no longer selling Sam Adams.

It might be overwhelming for some to keep up with every storyline.

With that in mind, let this serve as your cheat sheet. Here is what you need to know if you plan on placing a wager, making a prediction or just want to sound smart when talking about the big game.

The Patriots' defense is not as good as the scoring numbers indicate.

New England led the NFL in fewest points allowed during the regular season, but that ranking doesn't tell the full story.

According to Football Outsiders, the Patriots faced the easiest slate of opposing offenses. They ranked 16th in defensive efficiency -- 23rd against the pass and fourth against the run.

Granted, New England has shown steady improvement, but the Patriots now face a Falcons unit that played the second-toughest slate of defenses and still led the league in scoring and efficiency.

What makes Atlanta so good? It's not just about stopping one or two guys. The Falcons take advantage of different matchups on a weekly basis. According to Elias, Matt Ryan threw touchdowns to 13 different receivers in the regular season -- the most of any quarterback in NFL history.

To label the Falcons' offense vs. the Patriots' defense as strength vs. strength is a stretch. Atlanta has a sizable edge.

Betting on the big game? Here's the best content from Chalk, ESPN.com's gambling section.
Chris Berman's pick »
Ultimate betting guide »
Printable prop bet scorecard »
Biggest Super Bowl LI bets »
Rufus Peabody's best bets »
Vegas oddsmakers, celebrity picks »
Vegas bookmaker roundtable »

The Falcons' defense will need a new formula.

On the flip side, it's nearly impossible to come up with a scenario in which Atlanta will be able to slow down Tom Brady & Co.

In two postseason wins, the Falcons switched up their approach. In the regular season, they blitzed (defined here as five pass-rushers or more) 16.9 percent of the time -- the third-lowest rate in the NFL.

But in victories over the Seattle Seahawks and Green Bay Packers, Dan Quinn's team dialed up the pressure, blitzing 36 percent of the time, and it paid off.

The problem going into this game is a similar plan will likely result in disaster. Brady has posted a Total QBR of 92.1 against the blitz this season, tops in the NFL.

Per ESPN Stats & Information, 44 percent of the sacks the Patriots allowed this season were by players who lined up as interior defensive linemen or inside linebackers. That was the highest percentage in the league and probably a good indicator of where the Falcons will attack.

Unlike the Pittsburgh Steelers, look for Atlanta to play a lot of man coverage. But if the Falcons can't produce pressure with their front four, they'll have a tough time winning this game.

The best prop bet on the board involves gambling on Stephen Curry.

Curry's combined points and assists against the Sacramento Kings is -2.5 against the Patriots and Falcons' combined first-half points.

Curry is averaging 25 points and 6.1 assists per game for a projected total of 31.1. That should get a little bump, considering he's going up against a Kings team that is allowing 106.1 points per game (10th-most in the NBA). Curry had 30 points and six assists against Sacramento in a game last month.

But even conservatively estimating a total of 31 for Curry, the bet still wins if the halftime score is 14-14 or 17-10. That's easy money.

Last year's cheat sheet delivered a Curry-related winner. And this year's will as well.

Lady Gaga earned this opportunity.

It has become trendy to rip on Super Bowl halftime performers, but she delivered an epic national anthem before last year's game and now gets a chance for a bigger stage.

The favorite for her first song is "Bad Romance" at -115. The best value bet -- not that I've spent hours thinking about this or anything -- is "The Edge of Glory" at +900.

While the other musical guests have not been revealed, here's one suggestion: Paper Boi. The Falcons are in the Super Bowl. "Atlanta" just won a Golden Globe. The timing couldn't be any more perfect. This is the kind of opportunity the NFL cannot miss out on if it wants to be considered a forward-thinking league.

One more musical note: Quinn apparently puts a lot of thought into the playlists at Falcons practices. He had a New York day featuring The Notorious B.I.G. and Nas and played Ice Cube before a game against the Oakland Raiders.

NFL Films caught part of Quinn's postgame speech after the NFC title game in which he closed with, "Hey, in the words of DMX, we've got one more road to cross!"

Quinn might not have been the coach all Falcons fans wanted two years ago. But he's the coach they needed.

The biggest factor working against the Falcons is their red zone defense.

Opponents averaged 5.69 points per red zone trip against Atlanta during the regular season, the second-worst mark in the NFL.

Brady has completed 69.3 percent of his passes in the red zone (tops in the league), throwing 24 touchdowns and one interception.

One reason why the Patriots are so tough to defend is because it's impossible to predict what they're going to do from a personnel standpoint. In the entire regular season, New England used four-wide receiver sets just 10 times. Against the Steelers in the AFC title game, they did so on 17 snaps. Overall, the Patriots used 13 different personnel groupings in the AFC title game.

The Falcons have a young defense. Their rookies on that side of the ball played more snaps (3,071 snaps) than any other in the NFL, per ESPN Stats & Information. Playing well against Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers should give them confidence, but slowing Brady down -- specifically in the red zone -- will be their biggest challenge.

Someone (actually at least two people) bet on the Patriots to score exactly two points.

ESPN's David Purdum has a list out of some of the biggest and most intriguing bets that have been placed in Vegas.

As of last Sunday, the WestGate SuperBook had taken two wagers on the Patriots to score exactly two points. The payout: 9,999 to 1. In other words, throw in 10 bucks and cash in $99,990 if it hits.

While there is no reason to think this bet has any chance of being a winner, the excitement level an early Patriots safety could create would be unmatched.

And in case you missed it:

An excellent breakdown of the Falcons' 15 go-to plays on offense. ... Belichick thought Julio Jones had trouble getting open on intermediate routes and had inconsistent hands coming out of college. ... How a Patriots Super Bowl ring gave new life to 24 orphans. ... And Americans will wager an estimated $4.7 billion on Sunday's game.

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