March is almost upon us. Selection Sunday is three weeks away. Before you know it, we will have a bracket. But while everyone is focused on the top seeds and the soft-as-Charmin bubble, let’s get a head start on what really matters.
Potential Cinderella stories.
Below are five mid-major teams — not counting traditional powers Gonzaga, St. Mary’s, and Wichita State — who can wreck a bracket.
Monmouth(MAAC)
For two years, the New Jersey school has proven it can play with anyone, going 6-5 against power-conference opponents. It visited No. 21 South Carolina in November and took the Gamecocks to overtime, losing at the buzzer. It knocked off Ivy league power Princeton, and won at Memphis. King Rice’s team, which has won 13 straight games, won’t be fazed by the stage, has the size to hang with most high-major opponents, and has a legitimate star to carry it to an upset in point guard Justin Robinson, a relentless 5-foot-8 senior averaging 19.9 points, 4.8 assists and 1.5 steals.
Valparaiso (Horizon)
Just ask Alabama, BYU, and Rhode Island about the Crusaders, bubble teams that fell to Valpo. The Horizon leader, led by potential NBA lottery pick Alec Peters, is gunning for its third NCAA Tournament trip since 2013. The 6-foot-9 Peters, eighth in the country in scoring at 23.1 points per game, could start for any team in the nation.
Belmont (Ohio Valley)
Every upstart needs a star, and Belmont has one of the most skilled forwards in the country in 6-foot-7 senior Evan Bradds. He scores (21.0), rebounds (8.8) and distributes (2.5 assists), and is shooting an unheard of 62 percent from the field.
UNC Wilmington (CAA)
If not for a bad whistle, the CAA favorite would’ve knocked off Duke in the NCAA Tournament last year, and the Seahawks are better now. They are a more consistent offensive team that doesn’t rely as much on its full-court press. Atypical of a dangerous mid-major, Wilmington is deep, six players averaging between 17.0 and 7.5 points per game. It’s no wonder coach Kevin Keatts, a former Rick Pitino assistant, is expected to be a hot name when his season concludes.
Middle Tennessee State (Conference USA)
Last year’s Cinderella — it stunned Michigan State in the biggest upset of the tournament in 2016 — looks likely to get back to the dance, already setting a program record with 14 conference wins. It has victories over Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, mid-major powers UNC Wilmington and Belmont, and a narrow three-point loss at Atlantic 10 co-leader VCU. Arkansas transfer JaCorey Williams, after three nondescript seasons in the SEC, has emerged as one of the best big men in the nation, averaging 17.5 points on 52 percent shooting from the field.
LaVar Ball, the father UCLA phenom Lonzo Ball, likes to talk. He likes to brag about his sons, Lonzo and top high-school prospects LiAngelo and LaMelo, who both have committed to UCLA.
For the second time in a week, the eldest Ball compared Lonzo to Stephen Curry, going on ESPN and saying, “I’ma tell you, right now, he’s better than Steph Curry to me. … Put Steph Curry on UCLA’s team right now, and put my boy on Golden State, and watch what happens.”
We get it. You’re proud of them. But, relax for a moment. To even mention his talented son, a freshman with just 27 college games under his belt, in the same breath as Curry, the reigning NBA MVP, is ludicrous. He’s also predicted a national championship for UCLA and said the NBA would be easier than college for Lonzo.
The point is, he’s only hurting his kids with outlandish statements, only making them a target on social media, only heightening the pressure they already feel. If UCLA doesn’t win it all — and unless the Bruins start playing actual defense on a consistent basis they won’t — Lonzo’s freshman year may go down as a failure in Westwood, because of his dad’s silly comments.
Next time, LaVar, tone it down. You’re in the public eye now. Not all publicity is good publicity.
No. 15 Florida at No. 13 Kentucky, 2 p.m.
The SEC crown will be on the line in Lexington, when the conference’s co-leaders meet for the second time. Florida, which routed Kentucky in the first matchup in Gainesville, has been one of the nation’s big surprises — the Gators were unranked in the preseason — and could set itself up for a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament with a victory. John Calipari’s Wildcats have won four straight since the Florida loss, but remain inconsistent, barely scraping by SEC also-rans Alabama, Georgia and LSU.
Up: Caleb Swanigan
The National Player of the Year race shouldn’t just come down to a pair of talented guards. Villanova’s Josh Hart and Kansas’ Frank Mason III should have company in the supremely talented 6-foot-9 Swanigan. Thanks to “Biggie,” 16th-ranked Purdue is within reach of its first outright Big Ten regular-season crown since 1996, tied atop the conference with Wisconsin. Look at the nation’s second-leading rebounder’s numbers recently: 24 points, 15 rebounds and five assists in Saturday’s win over Michigan State, 16 points and 14 rebounds in a road win at Indiana, 26 points and 10 rebounds at No. 23 Maryland, 24 points and 16 rebounds against Northwestern.
Up: Jalen Brunson
He doesn’t quite have the explosive ability or next-level athleticism of the nation’s elite freshmen point guards, players such as Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Dennis Smith Jr. and DeAaron Fox. But right now, he’s a better basketball player, as smart and skilled as any floor general in the country. Few understand when to attack and when to orchestrate quite like Brunson, the son of former Knicks guard Rick Brunson. Provided he doesn’t go pro, Brunson will be the next big Villanova star when seniors Josh Hart and Kris Jenkins graduate.
Down: Johnny Jones
Wasting Ben Simmons was only the start. After failing to reach the NCAA Tournament despite having the No. 1 overall pick in last year’s NBA draft in his lineup, the LSU coach is presiding over one of the worst seasons in LSU history with 15 consecutive losses — 10 by double-figures. How did N.C. State’s Mark Gottfried lose his job before the overwhelmed Jones?
Down: Big East
From No. 20 Creighton’s loss to Seton Hall to injury-riddled Xavier’s ugly showing at Marquette and Butler’s recent struggles, the conference is clearly Villanova and everyone else several levels beneath the defending national champion. Injuries have obviously taken a tall on Creighton and Xavier — both programs lost their talented point guards, Maurice Watson Jr. and Edmond Sumner, respectively, to torn ACL’s — creating more parody after the second-ranked Wildcats. But it seems like a long shot to see anyone other than Jay Wright’s team making it past the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
1: Villanova, Kansas, Gonzaga, North Carolina
2: Baylor, Louisville, Oregon, UCLA
3: Cincinnati, Purdue, Kentucky, Arizona
4: West Virginia, Wisconsin, Florida, Duke
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