HOUSTON — From FOX analyst Troy Aikman’s perch, the Falcons could be at their most vulnerable early in Super Bowl LI.

“There is an element when you’re playing the Patriots because of past successes, because of the aura of their organization, and Bill Belichick and how masterful he is in preparing a team for a game, I don’t know how many points you would say that’s worth, but it’s definitely worth something,” Aikman said. “Just trying to get over that part of it is maybe the biggest challenge they’ll have as they prepare this week and believing as they go into that game that they’re going to win. And not if they get behind early that, ‘Well, this is the Patriots.’ I think that’s a challenge for every team that faces them.”

Then there is the quarterback challenge: This will be Tom Brady’s seventh Super Bowl appearance. It will be Matt Ryan’s first.

“The thing that Tom has going for him is that he’s been on that stage, and he knows what to expect,” Aikman said. “He knows when he takes the field, the adrenaline that he may feel, and my guess is that he would feel a little less anxiousness now having been in so many games.

“I think the advantage for him and others who have been in the game is they have an idea as to how their body’s going to react to that emotion, and when you haven’t played in it, you don’t know what that’s like, you don’t know what the experience is gonna be like. And I know that my first game that I ran out onto the field, I had a hard time catching my breath, it felt like I got hit in the face with a bat just trying to gather myself, and our whole [Cowboys] team was that way. We were the youngest team in football that year.”

Does it factor in to who wins and who loses? No, but it may factor in to who starts out well, who’s able to handle those things as the game first unfolds.”

Aikman said he expects both quarterbacks to play well.

“I’m looking forward really probably most to seeing what Bill Belichick has in store for that offense,” Aikman said. “And you know that there’s going to be something.”

That something is usually an effort aimed at taking away the offense’s best player.

“I don’t want to speak for Bill Belichick, but I would think that he’s not going to let Julio Jones beat him would be first,” Aikman said. “And then I think the other part of that is you look back to that first Super Bowl of theirs against the Rams, and how much they banged on Marshall Faulk coming out of the backfield, and I could see where it could be a physical, punishing game for those backs, [Devonta] Freeman and [Tevin] Coleman, coming out of the backfield is what I would anticipate going in.”

The Patriots will try to slow the league’s highest-scoring offense with their NFL-best scoring defense.

“I do a ratings system, and I always thought it was unfair that teams were ranked based on yards,” Aikman said. “I came up with this system that took into consideration yards per pass, yards per run, scoring, turnovers, third-down conversions, red zone scoring — all the things that I feel are conducive to winning football. The best defense in the league this year by my ratings was the New York Giants, and I believe they were the best in football. The No. 2 defense on my rankings is the New England Patriots.”

Aikman was asked how the Patriots defense matches up with the Falcons offense.

“I think they match up pretty good,” he said. “I think they’ve got a good [secondary], they’ve got some veteran guys back there that are versatile. I think Patrick Chung is a guy who is able to maybe do some things with those running backs since the Falcons don’t have a tight end that’s as big a threat as what some other teams might have. They got Austin Hooper, young guy, but I think that might free him [Chung] up to maybe do some things with some of these backs however the Falcons decide to use them.

“Of course, Malcolm Butler, what are they going to do with him? I kind of anticipate that they’ll probably roll coverage to Julio, put Malcolm then on [Mohamed] Sanu or [Taylor] Gabriel, but I think Sanu. But I think they’ll have some answers that will keep Atlanta [in check]. — they led the league in completions of 20 yards, and they led the league in completions of 30 yards. That’s why they led the league in scoring. So they create a lot of big plays. I can assure you that for the last week-and-a-half, Belichick’s been preaching about not giving up big plays, and so I don’t think there’s gonna be a lot of big plays down the field.And then you get down into the red zone, where the Patriots have been really good, and you force field goals. So I don’t think yardage is gonna tell the story on the outcome of this game.”

The over/under is 58 ¹/₂ points.

“I don’t think it’s going to be a particularly high-scoring game,” Aikman said. “I don’t really see that happening. I don’t know what high-scoring necessarily means, but I don’t think it’s going to be a 38-37 ballgame. But anything can happen.”

Aikman picks Falcons rookie linebacker Deion Jones as a possible unsung hero.

“In order to affect this Patriots offense, I think you have to get inside pressure on Brady,” Aikman said. “I think Deion Jones is maybe a guy who they can utilize in some of their packages to get pressure on Brady.”

Aikman said Dion Lewis or James White could be a Patriots surprise.

“I could see where one of these backs can be a real factor for New England,” Aikman said. “Some of the things that they’re capable of doing and creating some matchup problems. I can see those guys having some success.”

Aikman said he wouldn’t predict a winner because he will be calling the game with Joe Buck.

“I think it will be a good game,” Aikman said. “I really do. But I always do. I thought Seattle-Denver [43-8 Seahawks] was going to be a great game. You just never know.”

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