MADRID, 10 Oct. (EUROPA PRESS) -
BBVA Research places the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands and Madrid as the three autonomous communities that will lead economic growth in 2023, with forecasts of a GDP increase above 3% in these three regions, followed by Catalonia (2.7%), thanks to a greater push for tourism and consumption.
This body announced this Tuesday its growth forecasts for the autonomous communities in 2023 and 2024. In this context, it generally maintains the forecasts for 2023, placing the increase in GDP for the whole of Spain at 2.4%. .
The communities that will grow below the average will be Extremadura (2.3%), Castilla-La Mancha (2%), Andalusia (2.1%) and Murcia (1.8%), something that BBVA Research attributes to the consequences of the drought, which would have prevented greater job creation in these regions.
The boost in exports of goods, the recovery of the industrial sector, and especially the automotive sector, supports the dynamism in Aragon and Castilla y León, whose growth will equal that of the country (2.4%).
However, La Rioja (2.3%), Cantabria (2%), the Basque Country and Navarra (1.9%) and the Valencian Community, Asturias and Galicia (2.1%) will maintain progress below the average by not yet experiencing that clear improvement in the industry.
For the following year, Spain's GDP has been revised downwards by three tenths, which places growth at 1.8% due to the general worsening of foreign demand, affected by the increase in fuel prices, and the restrictions on growth in some sectors, such as tourism (again, at historic occupancy levels), or housing.
However, overcoming the drought episode should allow the communities with the greatest weight in agriculture to return to growth similar to the average, say BBVA Research experts. At the regional level, Andalusia (1.8%), Extremadura (1.8%), Murcia (1.8%) and Castilla-La Mancha (1.7%) would close the negative differential with Spain that they presented in 2023.
The advance of industrial activity, favored by an improvement in European demand and the elimination of bottlenecks, should allow for above-average GDP growth in most northern regions: Navarra, Aragon and the Basque Country (2.2%), Galicia, Castilla y León and Cantabria (2.1%), Asturias (1.9%) and La Rioja (1.8%).
The review of the scenario for Spain does not affect the consumption of non-residents, which makes it possible not to additionally modify the growth forecasts in 2024 for the Canary Islands and the Balearic Islands, which, affected by the restrictions on housing production and the moderation of the growth of tourism, will be those that show less dynamism in the next year, with growth of 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.
In Catalonia, the Valencian Community and Madrid (1.9%), these factors will be offset by the recovery of the industrial sector and non-tourist services and will present a positive growth differential with Spain in 2024.
