In the long term, the impact on GDP would mean a loss of 2.6 points and on employment, 3.4 points.
MADRID, 22 Dic. (EUROPA PRESS) -
The reduction in the working day agreed by PSOE and Sumar as part of the programmatic agreement for the coalition Government would subtract around 6 tenths from the average annual growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the next biennium and 8 tenths from that of employment, if "compensatory measures to alleviate the estimated increase in labor costs" are not taken into account.
Thus, it emerges from a study by BBVA Research, which warns of the impact that the reduction of the working day from 40 hours a week to 38 and a half hours by 2024 and 37 and a half hours by 2025, agreed by PSOE and Add.
For the third year, the report warns of a decline in GDP of 6 tenths, with an impact of 2.6 points in the long term, while employment would lose 9 tenths in the third year, with an impact of 3.4 points in the long term. long term. On the other hand, the unemployment rate would increase in the long term by 2.4, compensation per employee by 1.3 points, and productivity would grow by 8 tenths.
Between the fourth quarter of 2022 and the third of 2023, eight million employees had an effective and agreed weekly working day greater than 37 and a half hours, according to EPA data, which represents 53.6% of those who worked during the week. of reference and knew their effective and agreed working hours.
Likewise, the study indicates that "excess working hours will continue to occur in the future", in line with what happens with the current threshold, where in the last year there has been an 'excess of hours worked' that still represents the 5.5% of the total effective hours, reaching 29.1 million hours per week.
In this way, the study center estimates that, given the remaining excess and hourly remuneration, the proposed measure to reduce the working day to reach 37 and a half hours in 2025 would increase the share of wages in 1.5%. GDP at the end of 2025 in the absence of an early response from companies.
However, they point out that the measure has already been announced, so "it is unlikely" that companies will not react in advance or do so in a homogeneous manner.
Among the employees who work more than 37 and a half hours, the group of men, between 35 and 54 years old, of Spanish nationality, residing in Catalonia, Madrid or Andalusia, with secondary education, who work in the private sector in activities of services such as technicians and professionals, have an indefinite contract and have been in the company for at least 10 years.
However, those employees who are more likely to work more than 37 and a half hours are men, between 30 and 34 years old, of foreign nationality, residents of the Balearic Islands, Canary Islands or Catalonia, with primary education or less, who work in the private sector. in industrial activities as plant and machinery operators, they have an indefinite contract and have been in the company for between 5 and 10 years.
Given the estimated magnitude of the potential effects, BBVA Research points out that it would be necessary to carry out a detailed evaluation of the proposal before its approval and involve the social partners in the design and future execution.
Thus, in the short term, they ask for compensatory measures aimed at reducing non-wage costs, such as social contributions, and encouraging cooperation between companies and workers would help accentuate the positive effects of the reform and minimize the negative ones.
In the medium and long term, they ensure that it is necessary to adopt measures that boost the employability of workers and stimulate the continuous improvement of their human capital, as well as more effective active employment policies, which could contribute to increasing the number of job matches and improve their quality.