there is Still hope. Hope that it will still manage to prevent a worldwide pandemic. Hope that the measures taken by the governments are sufficient to the further spread of the Virus to contain. Hope that the approaching spring is preparing to an end, and we can use the summer to better prepare.

Still, there was hope in the capital markets. With a view to the SARS epidemic of 2002, the stock markets up last week, were convinced that it would not be so bad. The Chinese economy would have a v-recover-shaped, and in the summer everything would be forgotten. And even if it takes a little longer, would save the banks with even more and even cheaper money, the economy and the capital markets. In view of the anticipated flood of cheap money there is from the point of view of stock market traders only buy stocks. About the experts

Dr. Daniel Stelter (Twitter: @thinkBTO) is a macro-economist and strategy consultant. Founder of the strategy and the macro-economy specialized discussion forum "Beyond the Obvious". As the author of numerous expert contributions and non-fiction books (among others: the tale of The rich country, it provides an unbiased view of the economic and financial presented political questions of our time.

schools and kindergartens closed

But now there may be some doubt. More than 50,000 Italians are not allowed to leave their places of origin. Schools and kindergartens are closed in Milan, the economic heart of the country. The Virus arrived in Europe and Italy, a country where the real economic output has been stagnating without a Virus for years, and political discontent grows. Korea, after all, is the third largest economy in Asia and an important indicator of the state of the world economy, reports more and more cases. And in China, the doubts about the official Figures do not grow only now.

Regardless of whether it is a relatively harmless disease is not calling for more Deaths than a normal Flu epidemic, or a pandemic, before we should seriously fear, there are increasing signs that the economic consequences are likely to be significant. Significant, could cope with as the financial markets have expected it to be, and especially significant, as an already weakened world economy – not to mention the Euro zone – it. DAX 12.379,10 PTS. -395,78 (-3,10%) Xetra

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To race the course data

On the stock exchanges, all recognize to the output

The broker, that cheap money alone is no good, if the profits of the companies collapse. This finding seems to enforce. The hope is that it ends with no injuries, dies, and all race to the exit. Because there is, in our interconnected world, only a few companies, which are not affected directly or indirectly. There are winners, of course: the manufacturer of breathing masks and medicines. But this will not rescue the market. Because it is different than in 2002. At that time, the share of the Chinese economy in the world gross domestic product was below eight percent, today, at almost 18 percent. More than 50 percent of global economic growth we owe to the people's Republic, which has financed the Boom with a massive debt. For years, the political leadership of the country tried and dependency on ever-increasing debt get rid. Without Success.

With the dependence on more and more debt, the Chinese are not alone. The US government is currently a deficit of around five per cent of GDP and achieved a real growth rate of the economy of only about two per cent. We have made more and more debt and less and less to the real economy thus effected. The recovery since the financial crisis, is the weakest since the Second world war – and this despite previously unimaginable interventions of the Central banks.

Massive slump in the Japanese economy

think of it as a heavily loaded aircraft, it can only be under the greatest difficulty, and held in the air. It flies, but it flies high. The smallest external shock could lead to a crash and the next recession would be there. The Worries circled so far to trade war, protectionism, and hard Brexit, we have now with the Virus a possible trigger for the crash. Yet we hear messages like these from the International monetary Fund at the sidelines of the G20 summit in Riyadh: Due to the Virus, the global economy is likely to be growth this year by 0.1 percentage points and Chinese growth by 0.4 percentage points lower, in time, served as the Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva. How reality is these evaluation, show the massive slump of the Japanese economy and the decline in tourism in France to 40 percent.

But what remains the IMF, else, than to hope that it will somehow go well? Monetary policy is now on the Expansion, and the liabilities are the same. It is difficult to give the aircraft buoyancy. Germany would make a further spread of the Virus and a slump in the world economy on a massive scale. No other country has done in such a mass depends on the Export. No other country is so susceptible to the moods of the world economy. Last year, our industry has suffered from the decline in demand from China and from other regions. We only just came to a recession. 2020, we have to be damn lucky in order to succeed again. All sentiment indicators in the economy show clear to the bottom. The prosperity illusion, in which we found ourselves in the last few years, bitter and disclose that we have not used the good years to make our country fit for the future is likely.

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infected Political tensions will be immense.

the increase, It is also no coincidence that the Euro is trading in the face of the Virus threat for weeks even weaker Because without an economically strong Germany, it is getting harder and harder to stabilize the currency Union. Because here, too, we should let us policy not fool ourselves: Only the cheap money of the ECB has bought the Euro time. Is the health of the Patient is not truly and political tensions will be immense to increase if the Eurozone falls back into recession.

The United States is likely to come at the end of most easily with the crisis-device interaction. Nevertheless, the epidemic could cost at the end of Donald Trump's re-election. Because a vulnerable recession has, so far, failed always, that the incumbent lost his Job.

finally, a short Outlook on the time after that. Of course, will recover the economy again, as always after such crises. Politically, this could happen, until then, a lot, by the way, also in China, where the authority of the government is suffering under the mismanagement of the Situation. The result could be more reprisals, and thus, a structurally lower growth in China. In Europe, the willingness to more government debt is likely to increase in Germany, and you will be transferred to co - ordinate monetary and fiscal policy, "better", which means nothing else than that the Central banks Finance governments directly. So the traders get then in the longer term, but legal, and the shares will rise again. Not because the economy recover, and the aircraft was stable, it reaches a greater height, but only because it is the best way to protect his savings from negative interest rates and Inflation.

The Text first appeared in Cicero. Expert reveals: How Gold is betrays the real crisis, currency, FOCUS-Online expert: So, Gold is the real currency in a Crisis Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease, FOCUS Online/Wochit Where is Coronavirus? Real-time map showing the spread of the disease

Date Of Update: 27 February 2020, 15:00