Total crash or Dent? The Top Economists say about the Corona-crisis

since the financial crisis twelve years ago, not out of the exchanges were in the world last week in the basement. The US Central Bank, the Fed and the ECB lowe

Total crash or Dent? The Top Economists say about the Corona-crisis

since the financial crisis twelve years ago, not out of the exchanges were in the world last week in the basement. The US Central Bank, the Fed and the ECB lowered this week, the interest rates. Unpleasant memories of 2008/2009 coming up there.

However, experts disagree as to whether the Concerns that triggered the Coronavirus epidemic on the stock market, are really entitled to. "There is currently a lot of unjustified panic," says Alliance chief Oliver Baete, "in the short term the economy is affected, of course, but it is not so that tomorrow the world goes under." DAX 11.918,38 PTS. -209,31 (-1,73%) Xetra

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course data

No recession - "economic recovery moved"

is Confident to Stefan Kooths from the Institute for economic research in Kiel: "How rough the track is still: all the indications are that we have to do it with a V-shaped course. After the Virus is over, we will be back, very likely, not only to the former levels of Production and can start working normally again - I reckon even that we can catch up on a part of the production losses. Of course, we have to underline the forecasts from leading indicators in front of the Coronavirus. These have points in Germany already for the first quarter and again on a clearer revival in Hing. But The basic economic trend was upward - even if this development is currently overshadowed by corona effects, we assume that the recovery is only postponed. A decisive factor for the future is: How resilient a German company? How well this thirst by keeping track? Depends on whether it remains a V-effect or a larger hallway entry damage."

"The most Harmful to the over-reaction"

"The most Harmful of the Coronavirus is not the disease itself. It is the Overreaction to it and the economic consequences thereof – namely, a huge damage,“ says Marcel Fratzscher, head of the German Institute for economic research (DIW), in an Interview with the "world".

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Fratzscher also warned against that in Germany "the loss of jobs, short-work or falling income" and threaten, should break the demand. But that was a result of the reactions of businesses, consumers, and financial markets, and not the infection by the Virus, so the Economist.

economic researchers: the Crash would be potentially possible

With Timo Wollmershäuser, a senior economic researchers at the Munich-based ifo Institute the effects of the Virus epidemic warns. In the worst case, the Virus to kick in many countries, which would have drastic measures such as the Isolation of the sick to a result of said Wollmershäuser, in an Interview with "t-online". "Then the global collapse of supply chains, production losses, rising unemployment," added the Economist.

From this point you may be currently removed. However, the Virus did, according to Wollmershäuser, "the potential to bring the world economy to a Standstill". To give a concrete forecast in GDP could not meet the Numbers one, however, serious. However, China's gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink, "perhaps for the first Time in decades".

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fear of recession

There are still more words of warning: "Will Corona to a serious pandemic, it could lead to a recession in the United States," says about Goldman Sachs Strategist David Kostin.

should strengthen The organization for development and cooperation (OECD) fear is also Bad, the outbreak and take. This could push the world economic growth to only 1.5 percent. Currently, the OECD expects growth of 2.4 percent for the current year, according to a previous forecast of 2.9 percent.

at the same time, the OECD expects the global economy to 2021 could grow by 3.3 per cent, should have the epidemic in China, culminating inside of the first quarter, and otherwise mild and limited.

"The important message of down scenario, many countries would slip into a recession, which is why we are pushing for it to take in the affected regions as quickly as possible measures," said OECD chief economist Laurence Boone.

Allianz economist, skeptical as his Boss

Also, Allianz chief economist and Mohamed El-Erian is more sceptical than his Boss Baete: "The long-term consequences are very complex," he says. So the epidemic could go quickly over China and the world trade, but a long damage – for example, by the fact that States isolate themselves more, to be the next epidemic prepared.

what is certain is that This year, the Corona will damage the epidemic of the world economy. In the first quarter, for instance, some of the (city are likely to slip)countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore into recession. "We have halved our forecast for the world economy to 1.3 percent for the first quarter," says Bruce Kasman, chief economist at the U.S. Bank JP Morgan.

that was The weakest quarter since the financial crisis. But also the pessimistic bankers do not believe in long-term consequences: "The present development suggests that the Dent is ironed out until the third quarter again." With Stock Selection in Europe, you will achieve excess Returns with System! (Partner offer) Now 30 days free of charge test!

Even more pessimistic Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff is because The said in an Interview with "time", the world would be heading this year to a global recession. With this opinion he is completely alone. The global gross domestic product would fall in this and the next quarter, such forecast is no Analyst dares so far.

stock legend, Buffett advises investors to rest

"Corona is creepy," says investor legend Warren Buffett, but immediately restrict, "but it should not affect what you do with shares." Even in the current Situation, stocks are still a better investment than government bonds.

anyone Who thinks in the long term, now is a good opportunity to share to buy. "Past experiences show that investors with a time horizon of several months or longer, now is a good Chance," Haefele says UBS chief investor Mark. The occasion could even be in the short term, even better. The UBS't have the nerve so far, however, the reversal of the trend to declare.

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Date Of Update: 05 March 2020, 17:00

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